GIVE HIM SOME ROPE

Paul Martin reminds me of Muhammad Ali. And no, Lowell, I have not
been smoking the drapes.

Fight fans will never forget the Rumble in the Jungle. Set against
the majesty and mayhem of the former Belgian Congo, it pitted a
25-year-old giant and heavyweight champion, George Foreman, against
Muhammad Ali, an aging lion whose skills were in decline long before
the two climbed into the ring.

Both time and Ali stood still that night back in 1974. Ali hunkered
down against the ropes and absorbed hundreds of punches from the
younger, stronger man until his passive resistance paid off.
Arm-weary and exhausted, Foreman dropped his guard. The old lion
pounced and the champ hit the canvas. Pugilism got a new strategy
from the wily veteran: "Rope-a-Dope."

Paul Martin and the Liberals clearly remember Kinshasa. Like Foreman
back in 1974, Stephen Harper has come out swinging in Election 2006,
landing some heavy body blows -- a cut in the Goods and Services Tax
(GST), mandatory-minimum sentences for drug dealers, specific time
frames for reducing waiting lines for Medicare, choice in child-care,
an independent public prosecutor and future tax breaks that might
include income-splitting.

By comparison, Paul Martin has barely answered the bell. The Liberal
campaign has so far been an exercise in turbo-platitudes, ("I love
Canada"), if not utter disdain. While Harper was banging away on the
issues over the weekend, the prime minister offered a photo-op of
himself and the missus buying a Christmas wreath for 24 Sussex Drive.

Strategy Of Inertia

But Martin's strategy of inertia against a younger, more aggressive
opponent has a very cogent bottom line. The more Stephen Harper
exposes himself in the public ring, the further he carries the
attack, the more openings are created for a deadly counter-attack.

The Conservative leader's guard came down when he promised to
re-visit the same-sex marriage issue almost before the fighters had
touched gloves. For most of us, Same Sex the Rematch holds all the
attraction of a root canal followed by a trip to the proctologist.
The courts have ruled on the issue, the majority in parliament has
passed a law, and everyone has moved on except Stephen the
All-Seeing. True, his doggedness might impress his conservative base,
perhaps even galvanize it. But how will it play with the
thirty-somethings for whom sexual orientation is like one's taste in
wine -- a personal matter?

Harper's guard came down a little lower with his foolish policy that
possession of marijuana for personal use would continue to be a
federal offence in a Conservative government. For the 2 million
Canadians who regularly indulge, a vote for Harper could mean a
criminal record one or two tokes over the line sometime in their
mellowed-out futures.

Not A Federal Offence

Besides, this issue was decided a long time ago in the real world,
when John Lennon sued the U.S. government after the Nixon
administration tried to throw him out of the country for possession
of weed. Stephen Harper seems to have forgotten that Lennon won that
case and legions of young people got the message -- having a joint
wasn't a federal offence, even if some old fart said it was on his
way to his painkillers and a double scotch.

On those policy announcements with both steak and sizzle, early
exposure is at best a mixed blessing. It gives the Tories a leg up,
but it also gives the other side a chance to pick apart their
program. Momentarily fazed by Harper's promise to cut the GST, Martin
quickly gathered himself and began pawing back. After the initial
blaze of positive press about the reduction of the hated tax, the
coverage began to change. First came the thumbs down from selected
academics and economists, then news stories claiming that voters
weren't really impressed either.

Will Rope-a-Dope humble the better man in the jungle of the '06
election? Too many rounds left to say. But the latest poll from
Strategic Counsel shows the Liberals with a 12-point lead in Contrario.