SHIFT IS AFOOT ON MEXICAN BORDER

Security Crackdown Cuts Illegal Crossing But Aids Smugglers

EL PASO, Texas -- A security crackdown on the Mexican border is
believed to have reduced the number of people trying to cross
illegally into the U.S. while increasing business for professional
smugglers with ties to the drug trade.

Data to be released next week by the Department of Homeland Security
are expected to show the number of illegal border crossers caught
fell to less than one million for the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30,
the first time that has occurred since 2003. Through the end of
August, barely 800,000 apprehensions were recorded along the
U.S.-Mexico border, a drop of more than 20% from the previous fiscal year.

The decline -- thought to show that fewer migrants are attempting to
cross -- will add weight to claims by U.S. officials that heavier law
enforcement is making it more difficult for migrants to sneak across
the 2,000-mile border. With politicians deadlocked over how to deal
with illegal immigration, trying to seal the border to catch and
deter illegal immigrants has become the main policy tool.

But the crackdown also appears to be affecting the markets for
smuggling people and drugs in Mexico. As tighter security makes
crossing the border trickier and more hazardous, the traditional
mom-and-pop operations in Mexico that used to ferry people across
have been replaced by larger, more-professional criminal gangs, often
with ties to the illegal-drug trade.

U.S. officials are reporting increased violence along the border,
including gunfights between rival smuggling gangs, gangs hijacking
each others' customers en route to U.S. destinations and the rape or
assault of migrants.

Special Agent Alonzo Pena, chief investigator for U.S. Immigration
and Customs Enforcement in Arizona, says as the border gets harder to
cross, fees to smugglers have increased from next to nothing to as
much as $6,000 a head, making the smuggling business an attractive
new market for drug gangs.

"It's one of the unintended consequences of sealing the border," Mr. Pena says.

Border Patrol agents have noticed that smaller-scale smugglers on the
Mexican side are being replaced by more-sophisticated ones who appear
to have ties to Mexico's cocaine cartels. Smugglers are carrying
higher-caliber weapons and sometimes dress in camouflage uniforms and
use military tactics to evade capture.

"Drug cartels have more resources," explains Border Patrol agent
Martin Hernandez, now in his fifth year monitoring the busy corridor
between El Paso and Ciudad Juarez, in the Mexican state of Chihuahua.

In El Paso, the border has become much more difficult to cross. More
than 2,000 agents patrol a 268-mile border stretch that covers busy
urban centers in this binational metroplex of three million people,
as well as remote patches in the New Mexico desert, where ranches
harbor safe houses used by smugglers.

By adding 500 agents in each of the past two years -- with another
500 expected next year -- the Border Patrol has nearly doubled its
strength here. High-tech cameras, motion sensors and miles of
reinforced steel fence choke off smuggling routes. The addition of
6,000 National Guard troops along the border for part of this year
has also increased vigilance.

The crackdown, together with a slower U.S. economy, has helped stanch
the flow of illegal crossers in several ways. The higher risk of
getting caught and higher cost of crossing has prompted many illegal
workers in the U.S. to stay put rather than return home every year to
do things like celebrate Christmas with their families. For those who
still want to cross, the higher risk means putting their lives in the
hands of more-organized criminal groups with the means to get them through.

Authorities are beginning to see commingling of drugs and human loads
and are frequently seizing migrants who apparently are paying for
their trip by carrying drugs for traffickers. "Drug smugglers use
them as mules," the Border Patrol's Mr. Hernandez says, with loads of
as heavy as 60 pounds each being walked across the desert.

U.S. agents have noted that people smugglers are starting to follow
drug-smuggling routes protected by Mexico's Sinaloa Cartel, a
cocaine-trafficking organization, either paying a transit fee to the
cartel or sharing operations with the drug traffickers.

That may explain the apparent paradox that while the smuggling of
people across the border is down, trafficking in narcotics is ticking
upward. Department of Homeland Security data this month show a rise
in border drug seizures, especially of marijuana. A total of 1.7
million pounds of the drug was seized along the U.S.-Mexico border
between October 2006 and the end of August, up from 1.4 million
during the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2006, and 1.2 million in the
fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2005. Cocaine seizures rose slightly,
while seizures for methamphetamines and heroin fell slightly. The
increase in drug seizures is seen by border agents as an indicator of
an increase in imports.