EVEN A GENTLER LAW-AND-ORDER PLATFORM COULD LEAD TO PRIVATE-PRISON
BOOM, EXPERTS SAY

Imagine superjails run for profit by private companies eager to cash
in on Conservative plans to get tougher on crime.

Leading criminologists say the prospect is a definite possibility
should the Tories pass even part of their law-and-order platform.

They're watching for details as Parliament resumes today on how the
new government would pay for one of its top priorities: a justice
strategy that experts agree would dramatically spike demand for
costly prison space.

"Either they'll spend a ridiculous, unsubstantiated amount of money
on this or, more likely, they'll move to a more private model of
corrections," said Neil Boyd, a criminologist at Simon Fraser
University in B.C.

"And that has another set of problems."

Those include the thorny ethical question of whether corporations
that profit from having full cell blocks should be charged with
caring for violent inmates. Critics point out the obvious absence of
any business incentive to lower rates of repeat offence.

The U.S. experience with private prisons suggests higher rates of
return to jail, more in-custody incidents, more escapes and higher
staff turnover, says Anthony Doob, a criminologist at the University
of Toronto.

Incarceration rates have quadrupled south of the border since the
mid-1970s. There are now more than 2 million Americans behind bars,
compared with about 12,000 federal prisoners in Canada, largely
because of tougher U.S. sentencing and parole laws - the very kind of
crackdown now proposed by the Tories.

More troubling, criminologists say, is the lack of proof that jailing
more people for longer terms increases public safety.

"(The Conservatives) have not been able to give one shred of decent
evidence to support the claim that it will make our communities
safer," Boyd said.

"Sentences are already pretty tough for serious crime. It's one of
the few areas of public policy where science consistently ... has
taken a back seat to just blind faith and politics."

Melisa Leclerc, spokesperson for Public Safety Minister Stockwell
Day, stressed "a small group of offenders are responsible for a large
amount of crime.

"When those persons have reduced opportunity to continue their
criminal ways, less crime occurs and that means significant savings
in policing and court time. It also means fewer victims, which for us
is a cost worth measuring."

As for the prospect of private prisons: "We have never advocated
that," Leclerc said.

Yet the question remains: Is more time behind bars the best way to lower crime?

Research in the U.S. suggests not, says Jeremy Travis, president of
the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York City.

Rates of violent crime in the U.S. have fallen to record lows since
1992, he said. But a huge surge in public spending on imprisonment -
to $58 billion a year from $9 billion in 1982 - has not been the
driving force, he says.

"Researchers who've looked at this say maybe 20 or 25 per cent of the
decline in violence can be attributed to the significant increase in
incarceration. There are other factors that contribute three-quarters
of the explanation."

These include more police resources, drug treatment programs and
crime prevention efforts.

Leclerc says the Tories plan a balanced approach. "We also intend to
invest in effective crime prevention."

It costs about $86,400 a year to house an inmate, criminologist Doob
said. Expenses swiftly rise whenever terms are extended.

Billions of dollars more would be needed to add prison space, Doob
says, if the Conservatives swelled inmate ranks through other
proposed measures:

Mandatory minimum prison terms for drug traffickers.

Ending house arrest for certain violent and sexual offences, major
drug crimes and weapons offences.

Mandatory consecutive sentences (instead of concurrent terms) for
select multiple violent or sexual offences.

"This is going to put pressure on the government to privatize, in
large part, because ... then they don't have to put up the capital,"
Doob said. "I think they're going to privatize in the American way.

"It's going to be real trouble."