STAKES HIGH IN CANNABIS CRACKDOWN

There is an odd Alice-in-Wonderland-like quality to the impending
showdown between California's medical marijuana clinics - legalised by
state law to sell cannabis to anyone with a doctor's certificate - and
the United States Government.

The US Drug Enforcement Administration and the state's four federal
prosecutors - who warned recipients by letter in late September to
stop selling cannabis, classified under federal law as a Schedule 1
drug, having no medical value - are about to act against clinics,
landlords and cannabis growers.

"The Government says it's going after egregious offenders against
local and state law," says Dale Sky Jones, who heads Oaksterdam,
America's first cannabis college.

But she says prosecutors are targeting regulated Californian
stores.

Neither the DEA nor federal prosecutors wanted to talk about the
crackdown, perhaps because lawyers have filed lawsuits seeking
temporary restraining orders.

Cannabis supporters fear the raids will drive patients into the
criminal underworld. And the crackdown suggests calls to end the
four-decade "war on drugs" have fallen on deaf ears, despite its
failure to end global drug abuse.

"It would be hard to point to any public policy in the US that causes
so much clear and obvious friction between the federal Government and
almost a majority, population-wise, of states," argues Allen St
Pierre, executive director of the National Organisation for the Reform
of Marijuana Laws.

At the Cato Institute, a bastion of free markets, a conference this
week on the war on drugs suggested it had failed and new policies were
needed.

Senior fellow Ted Galen Carpenter argued the savagery of Mexico's drug
wars, with 42,000 dead since 2006, had made the US less safe.

"If we want to substantially reduce cartel revenues we have to
eliminate that black market premium.

"Depending on the drug, roughly 90 per cent of the retail price exists
because the drugs are illegal."

Legalising cannabis would remove cannabis profits, said Jones. "We
would be striking a larger blow at those cartels than any law
enforcement effort ever could. What's our exit strategy for the war on
drugs?"

The latest group to throw in the towel on prohibition are California's
doctors, tired at walking a legal razor's edge between conflicting
state and federal law.

The California Medical Association, which represents more than 35,000
doctors, came out last month in favour of legalising and regulating
the drug; the first major medical group to take this step.

"It's an uncomfortable position for doctors," Donald Lyman, who wrote
the CMA's new policy, told the Los Angeles Times.

"It is an open question whether cannabis is useful or not. [That] can
only be answered once it is legalised and more research is done."

Although the drug has some risks, the law has proven "a failed health
policy". California's cannabis clinics offer a reform template like
that of Portugal, which decriminalised illicit drugs in 2001.

"The most important part of the Portuguese experience is it debunks
the notion legalisation and decriminalisation would lead to soaring
usage," says Carpenter. "That hasn't happened. That's the No 1
argument for moving away from prohibition."

He also notes that Portuguese crime rates are down.

Even if the DEA does shutter pot clinics, any victory could be
pyrrhic. St Pierre believes Washington's "no quarter" stance on
cannabis clashes with grassroots realities. He argues the US has
crossed a Rubicon, citing more cannabis-tolerant baby boomers, a need
for tax revenue in a deep recession, easy access to cannabis
information via the internet and empathy towards the infirm who use
the drug.

His claim is backed by recent initiatives, protests and polls. In
March, 59 per cent of Los Angeles voters supported a tax on the city's
100 cannabis dispensaries.

Lawsuits defending the clinics estimate annual revenue from medical
cannabis at US$1.5 billion to US$4.5 billion. California estimates
annual sales tax at US$50 million to US$100 million.

But the medical marijuana law is imprecise. A California appeals court
ruled last week that local authorities can ban clinics. But an effort
to close 100 San Jose dispensaries last month was opposed by a
48,598-strong petition, launched by the Citizens Coalition for Patient
Care and backed by the United Food and Commercial Workers union.

The medical marijuana issue has steadily moved into the mainstream
since a California voters' initiative made it legal in 1996. Today, 15
other states, plus the District of Columbia, allow its sale.

"There's little doubt that, at least in the west, public opinion, and
to some extent elite opinion, is moving away from the prohibition
model," says Carpenter, who cites the Global Commission on Drug Policy
and the Latin American Commission on Drugs and Democracy.

Last June, the commission, chaired by Brazilian ex-President Fernando
Henrique Cardosa, petitioned the United Nations to end the drug war,
which "criminalised tens of millions", and seek new policies. His cry
resonates throughout Latin America where the insatiable US appetite
for narcotics has reaped misery south of the border.

While Mexican cartels exploit emerging markets in the Middle East,
Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union , the mature US market
remains dominant.

"We are living in the same building," said Mexico's President Felipe
Calderon. "Our neighbour is the largest consumer of drugs in the world
and everyone wants to sell him drugs through our doors and windows."

Prohibition is the cartels' ally, as it guarantees the black market
bonanza. But reform is not easy.

The main obstacle appears to be an obdurate bureaucracy and timid
leaders who fear being branded as "soft on drugs".

Carpenter says: "Not too many are willing to be first over the barrier
and take the inevitable hostile fire that will come their way."

History offers a precedent. The US abandoned its prohibition on
alcohol at the height of the Great Depression, convinced repeal would
create jobs and tax revenue.

Now business leads the way, using that 21st century pop culture icon,
the television reality show, with the impending US debut of Weed Wars.

It follows everyday folk at the Harbourside Health Centre in Oakland,
which boasts it is the planet's largest cannabis retailer with 94,000
clients. As corporates exploit cannabis maybe politicians will find
the nerve to debate drug reform.