MEXICAN MIGRATION DECLINE

The following editorial appeared Friday in The Dallas Morning News:

The vast majority of illegal immigrants in the U.S. come from Mexico.
That shouldn't surprise anyone. A big surprise is that Mexican
migration appears to have fallen to a trickle because of several
factors, not the least of which is an improving job market south of the border.

Exhaustive academic research suggests multiple, overlapping
circumstances are affecting the migration decline, creating a perfect
storm of good news for both sides of the border.

Yes, a growing anti-illegal immigrant sentiment across the U.S. is
one ingredient, but this is no cause for hardliners to claim victory.
Bigger, yet subtler, economic and social forces are at play, some of
them years in the making.

A major factor is the drooping U.S. economy, which continues to take
a heavy toll on immigrants as U.S. employers come under increasing
federal pressure to stop hiring anyone who can't prove legal work
status. If migrants can't find jobs, the higher expense of life in
America cancels out any meager economic benefit from being here.

All of the sudden, life in Mexico is looking a lot better.

At the same time, Mexico's economy is taking off, having reached a
5.5 percent growth rate last year according to The New York Times.
Job growth is particularly strong in the manufacturing and export
sector along the U.S. border. Even in violence-plagued Ciudad Juarez,
job growth rivals that of the healthiest U.S. cities. An 8.2 percent
increase in Mexican manufacturing jobs appears to be providing much
of the incentive for workers to stay in their own country, rather
than migrate north.

The cost and risk of migrating illegally also has reached all-time
highs, largely because Mexico's drug cartels have taken control of
the routes and smuggling businesses previously run by small-time
freelancers. According to one academic study, the cost of getting
across the border has risen 66 percent since 2005.

Granted, jobs in Mexico don't pay as well. But from the migrant's
perspective, the price of splitting up the family, sneaking over the
border, obtaining work and staying under the radar in America
increasingly exceeds the economic benefit from being here.

On balance, more and more Mexicans are choosing the path of least
resistance, which means not migrating. Mexico's economic good fortune
could become America's if the magnet of jobs and economic stability
across the border leads more illegal immigrants to return home voluntarily.

None of this diminishes the need for comprehensive immigration
reform. America's economy eventually will rebound, as will the lure
of U.S. jobs. U.S. business still will need a source of cheap labor,
and only comprehensive reform can ensure that the legal route is
viewed by potential migrants as the only cost-effective way to go.