NUMBERS ON ELECTRICITY THEFT BY POT GROWERS DON'T ADD UP

Basic arithmetic undermines BC Hydro's argument about the need for
smart meters

By Stephen Hume, Vancouver Sun

Integrating North America's electrical utilities into a continental
smart grid might be sound strategy; perhaps even essential. So I'm not
necessarily opposed to smart meters.

I'm not paranoid about concerns over smart meter radiation, either,
although when it comes to health concerns, citizens deserve to be
convinced with a forthright discussion of possible risks, not placated
with glib platitudes.

I am concerned about the invasion of privacy smart meters might
represent, considering security breaches, misuse of health and tax
data and now ICBC helping police investigate civil disturbances by
volunteering data gathered for commercial use.

But it's the basic arithmetic that most undermines BC Hydro's argument
that it needs smart meters to save hundreds of millions of dollars in
electricity theft by marijuana-growing operations.

Why my doubts? First, the supporting data are all over the map. Back
in 2004, at hearings into BC Hydro revenue requirements, BC Hydro
estimated the cost of electricity theft at $12 million per year.

Then a study from 2005 concluded that electricity theft documented
from marijuana growing cases had actually declined by about half
between 2000 and 2003.

Then a 2010 report on marijuana-growing operations in B.C. cited
estimates that in 2003 there were about 10,000 operating in the
province with about 2,000, or 20 per cent, stealing
electricity.

Next a 2011 report estimated there were more than 13,200 grow ops with
52 per cent, or 6,336, stealing electricity.

Meanwhile, BC Hydro makes the case for smart meters with claims that
electricity theft has grown from $12 million in 2003 to $60 million in
2006 to $100 million today.

By my arithmetic, this suggests that grow-op electricity theft not
only reversed direction but grew by 500 per cent in just three years
and then by another 62 per cent over the next four years.

That's an average growth rate of 80 per cent, which would mean more
than 10,000 new growing operations a year.

Let's look at it another way.

If the average householder in B.C. uses about 10,000 kWh per year and
pays about $850 for electricity while the average grow-op is claimed
to use anywhere from 10 to 18 times the energy used by the average
householder, then the annual electricity consumption by growing
operations ranges from $8,500 to $15,300. So, if we take the $100
million that marijuana-growing operations are alleged to be stealing
and divide it by $8,500, we get almost 11,764 growing operations.

If we divide it by the higher usage number, we get 6,535 grow ops. But
remember; according to the research, only 20 per cent are stealing
power. Or maybe it's 52 per cent. Who knows?

Thus, if these numbers do represent one grow-op in five, that means
there must be 58,820 grow ops in B.C. -or 32,675 using the higher
estimate for electricity use. In any event, it would be three to five
times the number estimated in some scholarly research.

Start doing your arithmetic for the average square footage required
for growing operations to draw down the power that BC Hydro says they
are stealing and it appears the floor space required for such
enterprises could be equivalent to about 25 per cent of all the office
space in downtown Vancouver.

Then there's the question of how much heat electrical power would
generate just in the wires going into growing operations at 10 to 18
times the rate for ordinary households. A lot, I'm told.

According to some electrical contractors, this means it could be
cheaper to search for pot grow-op heat signatures using off-the-shelf
thermal imaging technology developed for military surveillance than by
spending a billion dollars to give every residence a smart meter.

Whatever is going on with grow-op electricity thefts, does it justify
spending $1 billion to solve a problem that may be overstated and may
have more cost-effective solutions for the ratepayers who will foot
the bill for smart meters?