MARIJUANA: LOOKING INTO THE POLITICAL HORIZON

For years, there have been regular pushes in the Legislature and at
the ballot box to legalize or decriminalize marijuana consumption,
possession and cultivation.

This year was no exception: Earlier this month, legislation aimed at
allowing local authorities to decide whether to prosecute growers for
misdemeanors or felonies was rejected in the Assembly. It was the
latest in a series of setbacks for marijuana advocates, who see
legalization and decriminalization as inevitable.

But marijuana as a political and legal issue is not going away. The
crux of the issue is not the medical efficacy of marijuana it's been
legal in California since 1996 with the approval of Proposition 215 -
but the larger social question of whether punishing people for
marijuana-related offenses is sound public policy.

"It is a sustainable issue that probably will continue to be addressed
on many levels," said Assemblyman Tom Ammiano, D-San Francisco. "There
most likely will be a ballot measure in 2012 and most likely that
ballot measure will be successful."

Ammiano's AB 1017, which would have defined cultivation as a "wobbler"
a misdemeanor or a felony, depending on the prosecutor's discretion
was turned down handily on the Assembly floor after emerging from
Public Safety and the Appropriations Committees.

Ammiano, who has long pushed for decriminalization and legalization of
marijuana possession, is optimistic about future efforts despite the
derailing of AB 1017, which has been turned into a two-year bill.

There is some basis for that optimism: Polls have shown the public
evenly divided or supportive of decriminalization and as medical
marijuana use becomes more widespread, acceptance of marijuana by the
wide public is likely. Moreover, with a weak economy and local
governments and the state starved for revenues, proposals to raise
money by taxing marijuana plants is getting a warmer reception
particularly in the north state. There also may be a ripple effect
from California's overcrowded prisons: Under a federal court order to
shed 30,000 prisoners in two years, local prosecutors may be less
inclined to send new inmates into an already-overcrowded system.

"There still is residual opposition and even some intimidation,
particularly when it comes to the Legislature, but we definitely see
light at the end of the tunnel," Ammiano said. "The support for it
still is growing, although there is some concern on the parts of
legislators about it."

There is concern from the voters, too.

Last year, California voters decisively rejected Proposition 19, which
would have allowed people 21 years old or older to possess, cultivate,
or transport marijuana for personal use. Two years earlier, in a
presidential election year, voters rejected Proposition 5, which would
have expanded diversion programs for drug offenders, shortened paroles
and provided for rehabilitation and treatment, rather than
imprisonment, for several classes of drug offenses. Like Proposition
19, Proposition 5 was rejected, but Proposition 5 was defeated in a
landslide, by nearly 20 percentage points.

Advocates of easing drug laws believed that the 2008 ballot offered an
opportunity: It was a presidential election year and Democrats were
energized by the candidacy of Barack Obama. Next year, with Obama up
for reelection, marijuana legalization backers may see the 2012 ballot
as a strategic opportunity.

But others are skeptical. Marijuana legalization advocates have been
disappointed thus far by the Obama administration's response to their
request to redefine marijuana as a legal, prescription drug. That
request was made nine years ago to the administration of former
President George Bush, who rejected it, and on this issue Obama has
followed in Bush's footsteps.

"They (Obama's administration) have been negligent on this issue,"
said Dale Gierenger of Cal NORML, which seeks a loosening of
California's marijuana laws. "Certainly support for him won't be as
good in 2012 as it was in 2008, at least on our part."

Cultivation, he noted, is a difficult legal area because the current
penalty for growing small or large amounts is the same a felony.

"If you grow a single marijuana plant at home on your own property
that's a felony, and that makes no sense whatsoever. Any cultivation
at all is a felony. That's a crime that the Legislature has failed to
address."

To date, nobody has stepped forward to fund a 2012 ballot initiative.
And there is a clock ticking here: deadlines to submit the paperwork
to begin the process of qualifying an initiative kick in by the fall.

Opposition to legalization is strongest among older voters, who are
high-propensity voters, Gieringer noted.

"The polls are very clear on this. The opposition comes from the older
generation that never used it, from people who have never tried any at
all," he added.