HOW THE MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION DEBATE MAY SPREAD TO N.Y.

For the time being, New Yorkers can consider last November's defeat
of Proposition 19, a California ballot initiative to legalize and
regulate the personal use of marijuana, as none of their business.
But as this debate spreads outward from California it will, sooner or
later, reach New York.

Having started the war on marijuana, the federal government is the
enforcer of the status quo - even as opinion polls show the public's
desire for change. So, it is up to the states, one-by-one, to replace
failed drug war policies with something that makes sense. To see how
the future marijuana legalization debate might spread, let's consider
the work of professor Everett M. Rogers.

Based on hundreds of case studies, Rogers says the launch of a new
idea requires an adventuresome idea champion willing to deal with a
lot of uncertainty. A handful of "early adopters" will follow suit.
Then, after waiting and carefully watching what happens, the majority
of the potential "late adopters" are likely to give the new idea a
try. A few "laggards," might never adopt it.

Proposition 19 nearly passed in 2010 with 46 percent of the vote.
Let's assume in 2012 a similar initiative wins 51 percent and
California becomes the first state to legalize marijuana.

Shortly thereafter, if Rogers is right, states already familiar with
marijuana policy issues - including New York - will take a fresh look
at marijuana legalization.

New York citizens became familiar with marijuana issues during the
debate leading up to the state officially reducing the possession of
a small amount of marijuana for personal use from a criminal act to a
finable civil infraction.

Other potential early adopters include Alaska and Nevada, where past
attempts to legalize marijuana failed but medical marijuana laws have
been adopted, and those states that have approved the use of
marijuana for medical purposes: Arizona, Colorado, Hawaii, Maine,
Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island,
Vermont, Washington State and the District of Columbia. Legislatures
in Connecticut, New Hampshire and Minnesota passed medical marijuana
bills only to have them vetoed by the governors.

Other states that have reduced the possession of a small amount of
marijuana for personal use from a criminal act to a finable civil
infraction are also early adopter candidates. In addition to several
of the above states, these include: Massachusetts, Mississippi,
Nebraska, North Carolina and Ohio.

After watching what happens in these early adopter states, according
to Rogers, the remaining "late adopter" states will finally consider
whether or not to legalize and regulate the personal use of small
amounts of marijuana in a manner similar to the way alcohol and
tobacco are now regulated.

The marijuana legalization debate in California is a public education
process in which fear of the unknown is being replaced with
understanding. Ethan Nadelmann, director of the Drug Policy Alliance,
puts it this way, "The greatest challenge is to break the taboo on
vigorous, honest and open debate about all drug policy options,
that's what drug war advocates most fear." And that is exactly the
service Proposition 19 delivered last year in California. It got
people talking about the issue in an open and honest way.

In the weeks leading up to the vote, scores of newspapers across the
state ran hundreds of news and editorial stories, some in favor and
some against legalization. Millions of voters were called upon to
think long and hard about the costs and benefits of legalization.

The California State Firefighters Association, the Association of
Drug Court Professionals, and the National Black Churches Initiative
opposed the initiative. Supporters included many state and local
elected officials, the American Federation of Teachers and the
National Black Police Association.

As long as no one knows how to curb America's urge to use alcohol,
tobacco - or marijuana - legalization and regulation is a common
sense alternative to the current, endless drug war. Wars, both
foreign and domestic, are easy to start and hard to stop. For this
reason, California is doing the entire nation and the people of New
York a great service by seeking common sense drug control policies
that will greatly reduce criminal violence, increase tax revenues and
permit sensible regulation of a substance that is now acquired
through illicit, underground channels.