LEAKS REVEAL UNEASE OVER MEXICO

The Secret Cables Give a Much Starker U.S. View of the Pitfalls
Facing Calderon in Drug Gang Fight.

In contrast to their upbeat public assessments, U.S. officials
expressed frustration with a "risk averse" Mexican army and rivalries
among security agencies that have hampered the Mexican government's
war against drug cartels, according to secret U.S. diplomatic cables
disclosed Thursday.

The cables quoted Mexican officials expressing fear that the
government was losing control of parts of its national territory and
that time was "running out" to rein in drug violence.

The cables gave a much starker view of the pitfalls and obstacles
facing Mexican President Felipe Calderon, a departure from the public
statements of unwavering support that have come out of Washington for
most of the 4-year-old war, which has claimed more than 30,000 lives.

Two cables from U.S. Embassy officials in Mexico, one dated January
of this year and the other October 2009, praise Calderon for
persisting in his campaign to tackle "head on" the powerful cartels
that traffic most of the cocaine, heroin and marijuana that reaches the U.S.

But the Mexican president's struggles with "an unwieldy and
uncoordinated interagency" law enforcement effort have created the
perception that he is failing, the cable dated Jan. 29 said. His
inability to halt the violence or contain the rising death toll has
become a principal political liability as his public ratings have
declined, it said.

The U.S. assessment said Calderon's tools are limited: "Mexican
security institutions are often locked in a zero-sum competition in
which one agency's success is viewed as another's failure,
information is closely guarded, and joint operations are all but
unheard of," said the January cable, which is signed by the No. 2
official in the U.S. Embassy in Mexico, John D. Feeley, a veteran
diplomat with extensive experience in Latin America.

"Official corruption is widespread, leading to a compartmentalized
siege mentality among 'clean' law enforcement leaders and their
lieutenants," he said. "Prosecution rates for organized crime-related
offenses are dismal; 2% of those detained are brought" to trial.

The cables are part of a massive release of thousands of classified
documents by the WikiLeaks website that has turned an uncomfortable
light on the workings of American diplomacy. The documents involving
Mexico are said to number 2,836, and the first were made public
Thursday by the Spanish newspaper El Pais.

In the January cable, Feeley goes on to describe serious tensions
between the Mexican army -- increasingly dogged by allegations of
human rights abuse and its inability to stanch violence in Mexico's
deadliest city, Ciudad Juarez -- and a smaller, more effective navy
whose special forces have scored some of the more dramatic victories
in the war, including the killing of kingpin Arturo Beltran Leyva a year ago.

"Below the surface of military professionalism, there is also
considerable tension between" the army and the navy, the diplomat
wrote. The army "has come to be seen [as] slow and risk averse even
where it should succeed: the mission to capture HVTs" -- high-value
targets, namely, cartel leaders. "The risk is that the more [the
army] is criticized, the more risk averse it will become."

He said U.S. officials would have to convince a demoralized Mexican
military that "modernization and not withdrawal" are the way forward
and that "transparency and accountability are fundamental to modernization."

The cable was apparently intended as a "scene setter," or advance
briefing paper, for a meeting of the Defense Bilateral Working Group
that took place Feb. 1 in Washington.

This unvarnished U.S. assessment of the Calderon government's
political problems is matched by realities in Mexico that that The
Times has portrayed over years of reporting on the drug war.

The Oct. 5, 2009, cable was signed by U.S. Ambassador to Mexico
Carlos Pascual. It recounts a meeting with several top Calderon
security officials, including then-Deputy Interior Minister Geronimo Gutierrez.

Gutierrez is first quoted criticizing delays in the U.S. Merida
Initiative, a program that is funneling $1.4 billion in aid to the
drug war and to the revamping of Mexico's police and courts.

Then Pascual quotes Gutierrez as saying it was too late for crucial
"institution building" to take root in the remainder of the Calderon
presidency.

"We have 18 months," the cable quotes Gutierrez as saying, "and if we
do not produce a tangible success that is recognizable to the Mexican
people, it will be difficult to sustain the confrontation into the
next administration."

According to Pascual's report, Gutierrez went on to lament the
"pervasive, debilitating fear" that was gripping so much of Mexican society.

"He expressed a real concern with 'losing' certain regions," Pascual
wrote. "It is damaging Mexico's international reputation, hurting
foreign investment and leading to a sense of government impotence,
Gutierrez said."

As The Times has reported, huge swaths of important states that
border the United States, such as Tamaulipas and Chihuahua, as well
as central drug-producing regions, such as Michoacan (Calderon's home
state) and Sinaloa, are controlled by drug cartels that corrupt
police forces, dominate city halls, intimidate the public and kill
anyone who gets in the way.

A U.S. Embassy spokesman in Mexico City declined to comment on the
contents of the cables or to confirm their authenticity. He said
State Department cables in general "reflect the day-to-day analysis
and candid assessments that any government engages in," may be
preliminary or incomplete and "should not be seen as having standing
on their own or as representing U.S. policy."