EXPERT: AZTECA LEADER'S ARREST WON'T END VIOLENCE

It is unlikely the arrest of the suspected leader of the Aztecas gang
over the weekend will end the bloodshed in Juarez, said an researcher
who studies Mexico.

Mexican federal police arrested Arturo Gallegos Castrellon, known as
"El Farmero," who allegedly told police he was responsible for 80
percent of the homicides in Juarez since August 2009.

Gallegos, 32, was arrested along with two other people during a raid
Saturday at a home in Juarez. Police seized two rifles, two handguns,
drugs and four vehicles, including a bulletproof pickup.

Gallegos allegedly admitted to ordering the hits that led to the
killings in March of three people linked to the U.S. Consulate in
Juarez and a massacre of 15 young people at a birthday party in January.

Aztecas are the tattooed infantry of the Juarez drug cartel and have
been accused in a multitude of killings in the drug war between the
Juarez and Sinaloa drug cartels.

But the "80 percent" figure allegedly given by Gallegos raised doubts
among observers.

Since August 2009, there have been at least 4,222 homicides in the
Juarez area. If the 80 percent figure is correct, Gallegos would be
responsible for 3,378 killings.

"That sounds like a blue sky figure to me," said George W. Grayson, a
government professor specializing in Latin America at the College of
William and Mary in Williamsburg, Va. "You know what a blue sky figure
is? It's a high figure to make the government look good."

Grayson is skeptical of the highly publicized arrests regularly
presented at Mexican federal police headquarters in Mexico City.

"I follow it fairly closely," he said. "When you have the PGR (Mexico
attorney general's office) and the public security people, they always
announce this is a big leader that has been caught and sometimes it
is, but there have been a few (drug) lords that have been caught."

Luis Cardenas Palomino, head of the regional security division of the
Mexican federal police, said at a news conference Sunday in Mexico
City that the 80 percent figure came from Gallegos.

"I could not say how many homicides he refers to because the 80
percent is a figure he gave. He is in charge of the entire Aztecas
organization in Ciudad Juarez," Cardenas said, according to El
Universal newspaper.

"He is the boss of all the sectors, responsible for each of the seven
sectors in Juarez ... through him pass all the orders for the
homicides committed in Ciudad Juarez," Cardenas said.

In January, Gallegos allegedly ordered an assault on a birthday party
that killed 15 people in the Villas de Salvacar neighborhood in Juarez
because Aztecas believed members of a rival gang were at the party.

On March 13, Aztecas allegedly killed U.S. Consulate employee Lesley
Enriquez Redelfs and her husband, Arthur Redelfs, an El Paso County
sheriff's detention officer, in a street ambush after they left a
consulate-linked child's birthday party in Juarez.

Jorge Salcido Ceniceros, whose wife worked for the consulate, was
killed in a separate shooting after leaving the same party.

The Redelfs and Salcido were attacked while driving small white sport
utility vehicles. There are rumors that the deaths may have been a
case of mistaken identity.

Mexican authorities have arrested 10 alleged members of the Aztecas
gang in connection with the consulate killings.

Those arrests included Jesus Ernesto Chavez Castillo, aka "El Camello"
(the camel), who allegedly was the mastermind of the hit.

Chavez was extradited from Mexico to U.S. custody and made a secret
closed-door appearance in September at U.S. district court in San Antonio.

Chavez, according to Mexican police, claimed Enriquez Redelfs was
targeted because she was believed to have provided visas to a rival
gang.

After Chavez's arrest, Gallegos ordered the death of Chavez's wife and
the kidnapping of his parents because Chavez was believed to be
revealing information about the Aztecas to investigators, Mexican
officials said. Federal police rescued Chavez's mother and father, but
it is unclear if his wife is still alive.

Aztecas are said to be one of the most violent of gangs in the U.S.
allied with Mexican drug cartels and operate on both sides of the border.

El Pasoans in Texas prisons started Barrio Azteca in 1986 as a way to
protect themselves. The gang has since grown to an estimated 2,000
members and is the dominant gang in the El Paso region, where it
"taxes" street-level drug dealers.

The Aztecas and their U.S. counterparts in the Barrio Azteca formed an
alliance years ago with the Juarez drug cartel reputedly led by
Vicente Carrillo Fuentes.

The alliance gave the gang access to discount shipments of drugs and
gave the cartel enforcers capable of carrying out kidnappings, murders
and other tasks in the United States.

When the war between the Sinaloa and Juarez cartels erupted in early
2008, Aztecas took arms against rival gangs, such as the Artistas
Asesinos (Artist Assassins), working for the Sinaloa cartel.

The Aztecas in Juarez and the Barrio Azteca in El Paso are believed to
have separate leadership structures. The Barrio Azteca, or BA, runs on
a military-like structure and a code known as the "sacred rules." The
punishment for working with police is death.

Eduardo "Tablas" Ravelo, a reputed capo believed to run the Juarez
branch of the Barrio Azteca, was indicted in 2008 in a federal
racketeering case and is on the FBI's Ten Most Wanted list.

Because of ongoing investigations, officials with the FBI in El Paso
declined to comment on the Gallegos arrest, his link to the U.S.
Consulate killings or how he may be tied to Ravelo.

Mexican authorities said Gallegos was arrested on drug-trafficking
charges in the United States in 1996. Court records show an Arturo
Gallegos-Castrellon was arrested on federal drug charges in West Texas
in 1998. He pleaded guilty to marijuana trafficking and was sentenced
to two and a half years in prison.

Mexican officials said Gallegos is also allegedly responsible for the
deaths of five Mexican federal police officers.

Even if Gallegos is the top gang leader, the violence in Juarez is not
likely to end with his arrest, said Grayson, who studies politics and
organized crime in Mexico.

Grayson said underlings violently jockey for power each time a drug
boss is eliminated.

"There is a surge of violence after a leader has been captured, and
the violence does not seem to abate," Grayson said. "It goes up and
down some. Killing kingpins leads to an increase in violence."