MEXICAN POLITICS AND THE DRUG WAR

Texans, take note now: Our approach to border security will have to
change after the Mexican presidential elections in 2012.

Texas politicians hopped on the border security bandwagon during the
recently concluded campaigns. Enforcement approaches are necessary
but might be insufficient to stem either the flow of illegal
immigrants or drugs. Texas policymakers should be prepared to adopt a
variety of approaches to resolve its border problems.

Gov. Rick Perry hints that the escalating narco violence might
warrant a stronger U.S. military option - perhaps even sending troops
into Mexico.

Calls for increases in troops might be the popular notion on how to
deal with cartel violence, but the Mexicans will have a thing to two
to say about that. In fact, the domestic military effort against the
cartels is meeting increasing skepticism in Mexico.

Last July's state elections set the stage for an inevitable shift
from Mexican President Felipe Calderon's policy of dealing with the
cartels with the military. Aspirants to succeed Calderon - who is
constitutionally barred from seeking re-election - are keenly aware
that his aggressive military confrontation with the cartels resulted
in more killing that, in turn, led to a steep drop in the president's
approval ratings since 2006.

Just like immigration, securing the border is a two-way street, and
it's a busy street at that.

Guns, drugs, immigrants and more than a billion dollars in legitimate
commerce flow across the border every day. Keeping the good things
coming while stopping the bad is always a challenge for lawmakers in
the United States, and doing so successfully requires an awareness of
and adaptability to what's happening and what will happen in Mexico.

Calderon's conservative National Action Party will face a tough
challenge in 2012 both from left and from the centrist Institutional
Revolutionary Party, which ruled Mexico from the 1920s until the
National Action Party's Vicente Fox was elected president in 2000.

The Institutional Revolutionary Party is looking for a comeback, and
it would be unwise to bet against it. Enrique Pena Nieto, governor of
the central Mexico state, is the current frontrunner for his party's
presidential nomination. Pena Nieto outpolled all other contenders by
a three-to-one margin in a recent Mitofsky poll. That same poll puts
the Institutional Revolutionary Party ahead in the 2012 election by
38 percent. Pena Nieto says he will handle the drug war differently
than the National Action Party, emphasizing that using the military
to combat cartels "is not something that can be permanent."

But the Institutional Revolutionary Party, which retained strong
control in many state governments, was ousted in the 2010 elections
by left-right coalition parties in several states, including the
bellwether state of Oaxaca. This has led to speculation that an
alliance between the right-wing National Action Party and the much
smaller left-wing Party of the Democratic Revolution could be the
ticket to keeping the incumbent party in the presidency in 2012.

Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard of the Party of the Democratic
Revolution is gearing up for a presidential bid, rallying the
country's leftists. If elected, a coalition government would raise
serious questions, from how a party made up of conflicting ideologies
could govern with stability to what the influence of the previously
marginalized Party of the Democratic Revolution would mean for the
country's approach to the drug war.

Increasing the military and police presence on both sides of the
border, as Perry called for in the days leading up to his
re-election, won't solve the problem of drug-related violence today,
and it will be even less of an option when Mexico moves the drug war
out of the military arena.

In the meantime, Perry should work closely with his Mexican
counterparts to make sure that whatever change comes in 2012 is
productive. Increased cross-border cooperation and intelligence
sharing is a must. As the Mexican military's role in the drug war
fades, Texas policymakers will have to adapt by increasing efforts
against money laundering here, as well as efforts to curb the flow of
guns and cash from Texas to the cartels in Mexico.

Various studies have shown that the bulk of the Institutional
Revolutionary Party's weapons flow through Texas. Better that the
state concentrate on interdicting the weapons and money coming across
the border than shaking our collective fist. As long as the cartels
are as well armed and as well financed as they are now, threatening
gestures won't scare them a bit.