WHO KILLED PROPOSITION 19?

Who killed Proposition 19? Polls taken in California last year and
earlier this year found a majority of the state's voters favored the
legalization of marijuana. But that wasn't the way things worked out
on Election Day.

Proposition 19 lost with 54 percent voting "no" and 46 percent voting
"yes." California is still counting votes, but as of late last week
the vote totals were 4,156,418 in favor of legalization and 4,864,612
against.

So why did it lose? Well, for some of the same reasons that turn up
whenever any controversial proposal is on the ballot, for starters.

First, when it comes to ballot proposals generally, the tendency is to
vote no. When voters are uncertain about what a ballot measure will do
- - and they often are - they usually conclude that the safest course of
action is to maintain the status quo by voting no.

Second, voters rarely decide how they are going to vote on initiatives
on the weight of the evidence. A single weak argument against an
initiative can trump several strong arguments in favor of it.

Third, as a result of the foregoing, ballot initiatives that have
organized opposition - and Prop 19 did - are almost always at risk of
losing. And if their supporters do not answer the opponents swiftly
and aggressively, well, they almost always do lose.

Beyond that, who voted "no" and why did they do so? And for that
matter who were the people who voted "yes"?

Exit polls taken in California on Election Day certainly contain that
data, but so far I haven't been able to find a complete demographic
breakdown on the Web. (The exception is how Californians voted on Prop
19 by age.)

However, a national poll on marijuana legalization done by the Gallup
organization in early October may shed some light on the question.

Gallup found that nationally 46 percent of those polled favored
legalizing marijuana, while 50 percent wanted to keep it illegal. Four
percent were undecided. If you treat the undecideds as "no" votes,
Gallup's result exactly matches the actual vote on Prop 19.

Gallup did break down its results by major demographic groups. And in
the one case where exit poll demographic data was available - the vote
on Prop 19 by age group - Gallup's results and the actual vote very
closely match.

Gallup found that 61 percent of those aged 18 to 29 favored legalizing
marijuana. Prop 19 exit polling found that 59 percent of 18- to
29-year-old voters voted "yes." The correlation between Gallup's
national results and Prop 19 exit polling is equally close for all
other age groups.

So chances are Gallup's national demographic findings aren't all that
different from the Prop 19 voter profile.

Why would the Woodstock generation be disinclined to support
legalization?

Gallup found that the three groups showing the strongest support for
legalization were liberals (72 percent in favor), 18- to 29-year-olds
(61 percent), and Democrats (58 percent). The three groups in which
Gallup found the least support were Republicans (29 percent),
conservatives (30 percent), and those aged 65 years or older (32 percent).

No surprises here. Gallup also found that those in the middle of the
political spectrum were split: 49 percent of independents and 51
percent of moderates favored legalization. So were those in the middle
of the age spectrum: 49 percent of 30- to 49-year-olds favored
legalizing pot.

Again, not particularly surprising. Gallup's demographic breakdown
produced two highly interesting results, however. The first was the
figure for Boomers. Gallup found that among those aged 50 to 64,
support for legalization was 43 percent. The 50 to 64 age group
consists entirely of Boomers. The generation that made pot America's
favorite illegal drug doesn't muster a majority for legalizing it.
That's important.

(Prop 19 exit polling found California Boomers - voters aged 45 to 64
in this case - voted against Prop 19 by a margin of 56 percent to 44
percent. And they constituted 45 percent of the vote.)

The second interesting result was the breakdown by sex. Only 41
percent of women favored legalization. The comparable figure for men
was 51 percent.

Why would women be less inclined to favor legalization than men?
Concern about the effect of the greater availability of pot on
children and on family stability, essentially the same reasons women
supported prohibition a century ago, probably.

And why would the Woodstock generation be disinclined to support
legalization? Well, 50 percent of Boomers are women, and a large
proportion of Boomers, women and men, still have teenagers in the
house or 20-somethings in college - in other words, kids at the age
that worry you sick, especially when the subject of drugs comes up.

Who killed Prop 19? Bet it was parents.

Prop 19 backers have already said they intend to try again in two
years. At least two groups want to try legalization initiatives in
Colorado.

If those efforts are to have any chance of success, the first order of
business for legalization proponents should be to start addressing the
concerns of women and Boomer parents over legalization. Starting now.
Not 30 days before the election.

We'll talk more about this next time.