LEGAL MARIJUANA: NOT IF, BUT WHEN

Prop. 19 wasn't the end of the debate over legalizing marijuana.

For once, it was a real beginning.

One might have expected the principals of the Proposition 19 campaign
to partially decriminalize marijuana possession and use to be a
little chagrined in the wake the initiative's 54-46 loss after it had
maintained a narrow but reasonably steady lead in the polls until a
couple of weeks before Election Day. But in two teleconferences in
which I participated after the election, they were remarkably upbeat,
celebrating Prop. 19 as the proposal that finally brought marijuana
legalization into the mainstream, garnering mostly favorable news
coverage worldwide that significantly advanced the debate over
marijuana legalization.

Bottom line? This campaign is at the beginning rather than at the
end. Expect a similar proposal on the ballot in California, and
possibly in other western states.

Ethan Nadelmann, longtime executive director of the Drug Policy
Alliance, a national reform organization with state affiliates,
summed up the sentiment of most advocates when he said that marijuana
legalization is not a matter of if, but when.

A little background may put the current era of good feelings in some context.

Proposition 19 was not put forward by what we might call the drug
reform establishment -- organizations like the Drug Policy Alliance,
the National Organization for Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML) and
the Marijuana Policy project, that have been around for years or decades.

Medical marijuana entrepreneur and patient Richard Lee supervised
writing it and qualifying it for the ballot.

Lee runs dispensaries in Oakland and formed what he calls Oaksterdam
University to train people (for a fee) in expanding the availability
of medical marijuana (growing, running dispensaries, being a
caregiver, etc.) in compliance with California laws. He put about
$1.5 million of his own money into the effort.

When I talked to Richard Lee last year after Prop. 19 had been
qualified, he told me that other activists were dubious, arguing that
2012 would be a year with a better chance of success. However, he
said, he knew a lot of on-the-ground activists (the grassroots, so to
speak), who were champing at the bit to be involved in some kind of
political action and didn't want to wait two years to do something
meaningful. Even if the proposition lost, he said, activists would
have gained practical experience, advocates would know more about
honing their debating points, and the discussion would have been advanced.

Ethan Nadelmann, who acknowledged that he had tried to dissuade
Richard Lee from going for 2010, now thinks he was right to push the
timetable. There has been a "stupendous transformation in the
discussion," he said, statewide, nationwide and around the world.

The president of Colombia took note, and suggested that if Prop. 19
passed, it might lead to change in approaches to drug problems in
Latin America. Former Mexican president Vicente Fox publicly hoped
that Prop. 19 would pass (though current president Felipe Calderon
did not). As it was, Prop. 19 got more votes than either Meg Whitman
or Carly Fiorina (neither of whom said much of anything on 19 one way
or another), despite spending no money on paid advertising. A third
of Whitman voters supported Prop. 19, suggesting there is support for
decriminalization across the political spectrum.

Orange County's own retired Judge James P. Gray went so far as to say
that advocates of decriminalization have won -- that implementation
of some form of legalization has been delayed, but the outcome is no
longer in doubt.

If the discussion is now open to be conducted in a reasonably fair
manner, the advocates of prohibition will not stand a chance.

Further discussion will highlight the hypocrisy of current policies:
The last three presidents publicly acknowledged that they had smoked
marijuana, yet they achieved a modicum of success. Would being
arrested or jailed have helped their careers or their personal situations?

A still little-acknowledged fact is the growing participation of
high-level law enforcement and judicial system officials (mostly
retired, to be sure, but some still on active duty) in the drug
reform movement.

The post-Prop. 19 teleconferences included former LAPD Deputy Chief
Stephen Downing, Diane Goldstein, who retired as a lieutenant after
22 years with the Redondo Beach Police Department, and Dr. Norm
Stamper, who served 24 years in the San Diego Police Department
before becoming chief of police in Seattle. Stephen Downing said he
planned to spend the next two years talking with and persuading
current law enforcement people to speak out on prohibition, while
Norm Stamper said all that is really needed is to get police officers
to start saying in public what many are already saying in private --
that the drug war is a failure that drains law enforcement resources
from more important activities.

All the participants are sure some kind of cannabis relegalization
measure will be on the 2012 ballot, when more younger voters than
showed up in 2010 are likely to vote. Meanwhile, all the reform
organizations will be working with San Francisco Assemblyman Tom
Ammiano, who introduced a bill in the state legislature -- which
actually got approved by one committee but never came before the full
house -- to see what reform measures might gain legislative approval.

Ethan Nadelmann said to expect both initiative and legislative
efforts in several western states, with Oregon, Washington, Nevada,
Colorado and Alaska being the most likely candidates. Reform
measures, from limited medical marijuana statutes to full
legalization, have at least found legislative sponsors in several
states without the initiative process.

Anna Greenberg of the polling and public relations firm Greenberg
Quinlan Rosner said a poll of Californians who had already voted
suggests that some form of legalization is "poised to win" in 2012.
On the simple question of legalization (apart from Prop. 19), 50
percent supported the idea and nearly half (including a quarter of
those who voted no) believe legalization is inevitable. Some 52
percent believe marijuana laws do more harm than good. Nothing is
assured in politics, but recent trends suggest the number favoring
legalization will rise, as it has every year since the 1980s.

Hope you're not tired of hearing about the issue. If anything,
discussion will increase in intensity and frequency in the next
couple of years.