PROPOSITION 19 DEFEAT SHOWS GREAT DIVIDE OVER POT

Trying to glean lessons from the ashes of Proposition 19, the measure
that would have legalized marijuana for casual use in California, is tough.

California's premier pot-growing region rejected it, the tiniest
county in the state embraced it, and overall the idea got more votes
than any other attempt to legalize recreational marijuana use in U.S. history.

Proponents are taking this to mean they just have to wait until 2012,
when young voters - who polls show are much more likely than their
elders to favor legalization - are likely to turn out in greater
force for a presidential election.

Opponents take the opposite tack, saying the electorate just cannot
warm up to the idea of sanctioning recreational dope-smoking.

None of the main arguments against Prop. 19 will change by 2012, they
point out - legalizing marijuana could lead to more people coming to
work or driving stoned, and pot will still be illegal under federal law.

A determination of who is right will probably have to wait until the
next ballot box fight.

A Strike by Feds

Many agreed that one of the stiffest blows to Prop. 19 was U.S.
Attorney General Eric Holder's announcement Oct. 14 that if
Californians passed the measure, he would still "vigorously enforce"
the federal ban on possessing, growing or selling the drug.

Shortly afterward, the Field Poll and several other surveys that once
had Prop. 19 leading showed that the initiative had done an
about-face. By election day, the Field Poll had the measure down by
seven points - almost exactly the eventual margin of defeat.

Varying claims that Prop. 19 would bring billions of dollars into
local governments by allowing them to regulate and tax the drug, or
would just create a mishmash of confusing rules up and down the
state, confused voters, some analysts said.

Then there was Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's Sept. 30 signing of a law
classifying possession of an ounce of pot as a $100 infraction
instead of a misdemeanor. Prop. 19 opponents said the new law made
the measure all but moot. Proponents said it didn't go far enough.

'It Became Less Sexy'

"There were a lot of people who sort of supported it but weren't sure
about the measure because it was an experimental thing, but once it
became more complicated it became less sexy," said UC Davis law
Professor Vikram Amar, an expert on marijuana policy. "And when an
initiative is close on the margin like this was, 50-50 or so, it
doesn't take much to swing it one way or another."

In the end, the measure was rejected even in the Emerald Triangle of
Mendocino, Trinity and Humboldt counties, where pot is the biggest
economic engine.

Growers' Price Worries

The common wisdom early was that the many marijuana farmers would
embrace the initiative. But as the campaign progressed, it became
clear that while some thought there was money to be made by marketing
the region as the Napa Valley of pot, many thought legalization would
drop marijuana's price so much they'd lose income.

No such fears prevailed in Alpine County, the smallest county in the
state, where Prop. 19 passed handily with the fiercely independent
mountain electorate. The measure also got a big thumbs-up in San
Francisco, which with a 65 percent "yes" vote gave Prop. 19 its
biggest victory margin in California.

Opponents' Strategy

"They certainly got schooled a little bit here," No on 19 campaign
strategist Wayne Johnson said of his opponents.

Johnson said his side had determined early that "reefer madness"
arguments that pot was a gateway drug to hard narcotics would be a
nonstarter. So opponents concentrated on what they thought were the
confusing elements of allowing scores of local jurisdictions to
regulate pot as they pleased - and of the uncertainty over how much
money Prop. 19 would raise.

"It helped that virtually every newspaper editorial board in the
state agreed with us," Johnson said. Holder's pronouncement, he
added, "seemed to be the last nail of the coffin."

Prop. 19 proponents had a different interpretation.

"Anyone who changed their voted based on the federal government
saying they remain opposed to legalized marijuana - I don't buy it. I
mean, was that news?" said Stephen Guttwillig, California director of
the Drug Policy Alliance, one of the main backers of the measure.

He and initiative author Richard Lee, founder of Oaksterdam
University, the pot-trade school in Oakland, said that even though
Prop. 19 lost, the campaign advanced the public's knowledge and
acceptance of legalization.

They noted that the 46 percent "yes" vote for Prop. 19 was the
highest ever for any general pot legalization proposal in the country.

Greater Acceptance

The last time Californians voted on the idea, with the coincidentally
named Proposition 19 in 1972, the "yes" vote was just 33.5 percent.

Polls in recent years have consistently shown voters younger than 30
overwhelmingly approving of pot legalization. A Newsweek/Princeton
Survey poll released Oct. 22 put that support nationally at 70
percent - compared with overall support among all age groups at 45 percent.

"The ingredients are already in place for legalization, which is what
makes a lot of people think we should get right back on the horse and
aim for 2012," Guttwillig said.

Other States Receptive

Guttwillig said voters also should expect similar efforts in other
Western states where legalization sentiment is strong, including
Washington, Oregon, Alaska, Nevada and Colorado.

Whether that means a duplicate of Prop. 19 will be on the ballots
remains to be seen, he said.

"We don't know yet if anything specific to Prop. 19 was problematic,"
Guttwillig said. "The target may move all by itself in the planning
process. We'll just have to see what we come up with."