MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION: NOT IF, BUT WHEN

California's marijuana legalization initiative, Proposition 19,
didn't win a majority of votes, but it already represents an
extraordinary victory for the broader movement to legalize marijuana.

What's most important is the way its mere presence on the ballot,
combined with a well run campaign, has transformed public dialogue
about marijuana and marijuana policy.

The media coverage, not just in California but around the country and
even internationally, has been exceptional, both in quantity and quality.

More people knew about Prop 19 than any other measure on the ballot
this year -- not just in California but nationwide.

The debate is shifting from whether marijuana should be legalized to
how. Public opinion polls in California consistently reveal that a
majority of the state's citizens favor legalizing marijuana.

One "No on 19" campaign spokesman admitted that even his own
supporters were divided between those who oppose legalizing marijuana
and those who favor legalization but were wary of either Prop 19's
specific provisions or the federal government's threats to block it
from being implemented.

Prop 19 both elevated and legitimized public discourse about
marijuana. It's the small but growing number of elected officials who
endorsed Prop 19 or said they'd vote for it -- and the increasingly
frequent private expressions of support by candidates and elected
officials who said they wished they could be public about their position.

It's the growing number of endorsements by labor unions, including
SEIU California, and civil rights organizations, including the
California chapter of the NAACP and the National Latino Officers Association.

The international attention, especially in Latin America, has been
extensive. Mexican President Calderon and Colombian President Santos
both criticized Proposition 19, pointing to it as evidence of
inconsistency in US drug policy.

But the possibility that Prop 19 might win did prompt both presidents
to call for more open debate about legalization and other
alternatives to current drug policy.

Mexican diplomatic officials publicly castigated Prop 19 but
privately said they hoped it would win. No one thought a victory for
Prop 19 would instantly put the violent Mexican drug trafficking
organizations out of business but everyone recognized that it would
represent a major step forward toward ultimately legalizing marijuana
on both sides of the border.

And that most definitely would undermine the criminal organizations,
who would lose their competitive advantage just as repealing national
alcohol Prohibition eventually did away with the bootleggers.

"How great it would be for California to set this example," former
Mexican President Vicente Fox said in a radio interview last week.
"May God let it pass. The other U.S. states will have to follow step."

There's now solid and increasing evidence that marijuana legalization
is an issue that young people care about a lot -- and that putting it
on the ballot increases the chances that they'll actually vote. Both
major parties have no choice but to pay attention, especially when
the political allegiances of young voters are very much up for grabs.
Democrats correctly see the marijuana issue as bringing out more
votes for them than for Republicans. Asked what would bring out
young, first-time Barack Obama voters again, the chairman of the
California Democratic Party, John Burton, responded with one word: "Pot."

It's notable, though, that Meg Whitman, the Republican candidate for
governor in California, did not actively campaign against Prop 19,
most likely because she did not want to alienate young voters who
don't identify as Democrats but who do feel strongly about legalizing
marijuana. Younger voters across the political spectrum increasingly
lean libertarian, especially on issues like marijuana.

Both Democrats and Republicans will need to re-think this issue when
Gary Johnson, the former governor of New Mexico who has championed
marijuana legalization and "harm reduction" drug policies for other
drugs, runs in the Republican presidential primaries next year, as he
seems sure to do. First-time and other young voters may gravitate in
substantial numbers toward his message -- and all the more so if Ron
Paul decides to hand off the baton to his younger ideological soul mate.

For those of us engaged in long term strategizing on marijuana law
reform, the plan is the same as it would have been if Prop 19 had
won: to put the issue to voters in states where public opinion polls
show majority support for legalizing marijuana, and to introduce
similar bills in state legislatures. Public support for legalizing
marijuana now approaches or tops 50% not just in California but in a
growing number of western states, including Washington, Oregon,
Alaska, Colorado and Nevada -- so it's reasonable to expect ballot
initiatives on the issue in those states in coming years.

It's too soon to say whether the issue will be back on the ballot in
California in 2012 but at the very least we know that a bill to
regulate and tax marijuana will be considered by the state
legislature, just as one was earlier this year. And a flurry of
similar bills can be expected around the country as state
legislators, emboldened by Proposition 19 and rapidly increasing
support nationwide for marijuana legalization, kick start the
conversation in their own legislatures.

Meanwhile, Prop 19 already can claim one hard victory: Governor
Schwarzenegger recently signed into law a bill that will reduce the
penalty for marijuana possession from a misdemeanor to a
non-arrestable infraction, like a traffic ticket.

That's no small matter in a state where arrests for marijuana
possession totaled 61,000 last year -- roughly triple the number in
1990. It's widely assumed that the principal reason the governor
signed the bill, which had been introduced by a liberal state
senator, Mark Leno, was to undermine one of the key arguments in
favor of Prop 19.

Demographics, economics and principle all favor the ultimate demise
of marijuana prohibition. Over half of California voters under the
age of fifty said they'd vote for Proposition 19, and likely did. The
youngest voters are most in favor while the most elderly voters are
the most opposed. Meanwhile, the economic arguments for legalizing
marijuana -- including both the savings from reduced spending on law
enforcement and the revenues from taxing legal marijuana, will only
grow more persuasive. Marijuana isn't going to legalize itself, but
momentum is building like never before among Americans across the
political spectrum who think it's time to take marijuana out of the
closet and out of the criminal justice system.

Ethan Nadelmann is founder and executive director of the Drug Policy Alliance.