WHETHER PROP 19 PASSES OR NOT, LEGALIZATION IS NOW MAINSTREAM

But Win or Lose This Time, a Page in History Has Turned -- Drug
Policy Reform Is an Issue Who Time Has Come, and Time Is on Our Side.

California's Proposition 19, the marijuana legalization "Tax and
Regulate" initiative, has been a roller coaster ride for drug policy
reformers. In May polls showed Prop 19 in the lead, but not by much
and with support under 50%. For the next four months, the numbers did
something we didn't expect; opposition to the measure steadily
decreased. One pollster interviewed in early October for my
organization's newsletter, commented, "If I was in Las Vegas and I
was a betting man, I'd bet on [Prop 19] to win, but I'd only bet
money I could afford to lose." A number of funders took that bet last
month, adding steam to what had been a mostly low-profile campaign.

The last few weeks have seen support for Prop 19 fall in most polls,
a phenomenon common to controversial ballot measures. Voters might
support the general concept of an initiative -- west coast support
for marijuana legalization polled at 58% last week -- but some
inevitably develop doubts about a given initiative at a given time,
especially as opponents raise questions, and when uncertain tend pull
"no" lever. If Prop 19 is defeated, that will be the reason, not
opposition in principle to legalization. But defeat is not
inevitable. Last-minute donations funding an ad blitz, and extensive
voter turnout efforts, could make the difference, and the campaign
has pointed out that polling conducted by computer rather than live
interviewers still shows the initiative ahead. One late poll, while
showing the initiative behind, also found voters who don't usually
turn out for midterm elections coming out for Prop 19. If the
marijuana vote can change turnout demographics tomorrow, that could
make the difference too.

Win or lose, though, in a sense Prop 19 has already won. A partial
listing of mainstream organizations that have publicly called for
marijuana legalization for the first time by , shows that
legalization can no longer credibly be dismissed as from the fringe:

* California NAACP

* LULAC of California

* Latino Voters League

* National Black Police Association

* National Latino Officers Association

* SEIU of California

* UFCW Western States Council

* ILWU Northern California District Council

* California Young Democrats

Those are only some of the larger ones. Current and former
politicians in California have endorsed Prop 19, from the local level
up through Congress. Founders of Facebook, Gmail and PayPal made
financial contributions to the campaign. Widespread positive coverage
including editorials in the likes of Newsweek and the New York Times
makes the point too.

We'll find out on Tuesday what California voters decide about Prop 19
this year. But win or lose this time, a page in history has turned --
drug policy reform is an issue who time has come, and time is on our side.