CALIF. VOTE COULD UPSET B.C. ECONOMY

Legalizing Pot South of Border Likely to Put Big Dent in Trade of
Locally Grown Bud, Says Criminologist

B.C.'s illegal marijuana industry will be dealt a heavy economic blow
if Californians vote to legalize pot in the Golden State on Tuesday,
says a criminology professor who has studied the impact of B.C. bud
for more than a decade.

Darryl Plecas, criminology professor at the University of Fraser
Valley and director of the Centre for Criminal Justice Research, says
decriminalizing pot in California would have a huge economic impact on
the illegal trade of B.C. bud -- and would weaken organized-crime groups.

"The single biggest fuel for organized crime in B.C. is grow-ops,"
says Plecas. "It's hard to imagine it could not have some significant
impact."

Californians will vote, during the midterm elections on Tuesday, on
whether to legalize pot. If passed, Proposition 19 would allow adults
21 and older to possess up to 28.5 grams of marijuana and to grow pot
at a private residence in a space of up to 25 square feet for personal
use.

Local governments may also authorize larger amounts for commercial
cultivation and the retail sale of up to 28.5 grams of marijuana per
transaction.

Plecas says 70 per cent of B.C. bud is destined for export, with
Washington and California the major markets.

California, with a population of 36 million -- about three million
more than all of Canada -- has been a particularly important market
because the farther south pot travels, the higher the price it yields,
says Plecas.

And if Californians are able to legally cultivate and purchase pot,
that will drive the price of B.C. bud down and weaken the strength of
organized crime, he argues.

"One way to look at it is mass layoffs," says Plecas, suggesting that
there would be fewer people needed to cultivate the drug in B.C.

B.C.'s illegal pot industry generates between $3 billion and $7
billion annually, says Plecas.

And diminishing demand would not only negatively affect the
underground economy, but could also cause a wider ripple effect, with
retail and restaurant industries taking a hit, along with real estate.

Plecas estimates at least 10,000 homes in the province are used as
grow-ops.

It is unlikely, however, that legalizing marijuana in California would
mean the end of gangs in B.C.

"I definitely worry about what will they do next," says
Plecas.

"We'd be naive to think [they'll say] 'Oh, that's it, I'll go and get
a job at McDonald's."

But Staff-Sgt. Dave Goddard of the RCMP E Division Greater Vancouver
Drug Section disagrees and says organized crime in B.C. may actually
benefit from greater demand.

Goddard says legalization in California would likely lead to more pot
smokers who are more likely to buy the drug than grow it.

"There's not much marijuana you can grow in a five-by-five [foot]
area. Quite frankly, you're only going to be able to grow one plant
and that won't be sufficient," says Goddard.

Goddard predicts it would take some time for commercial production and
sales to begin, given that they need municipal government approval,
and in the meantime, users would be likely to buy from the easiest
means possible, which would be through the underground industry.

"I think it'll create more demand for grows up here -- it just
increases the market," he says.

Jodie Emery, longtime pot activist and wife of Marc Emery, the
so-called "Prince of Pot" who's been jailed in the U.S. for mailing
marijuana seeds south of the border, says B.C.'s "cannabis tourism"
would go up in smoke with the passage of Proposition 19.

But she supports the bill and on Saturday flew to Oakland, Calif., to
help pro-legalization activist Richard Lee campaign for the Yes vote.

"I'm absolutely for it 100 per cent and . . . I'll be down there
campaigning with the people for Prop. 19," says Emery.