All Eyes on 19:

MARIJUANA PROPOSITION COULD RAISE TURNOUT, BOLSTER DEMOCRATS

Ask any pollster, and they'll tell you the key to accurately
predicting an election is predicting turnout.

In November 2008, it was a flood of young and first-time voters that
carried Barack Obama to the presidency. In 2004, many credited ballot
initiatives seeking to ban gay marriage with firing up the Republican
base, driving turnout and pushing George W. Bush to his second term
in the White House.

In this midterm election, the story line has been the "enthusiasm
gap," or the idea that a sea of fired up Republicans will overtake
apathetic Democrats and push incumbents out of office.

In California, however, there's another wild card that could drive
turnout and change the complexion of state and local races -- Proposition 19.

"Normally, young voters don't vote in a lot of off-year elections,"
said Keith Stroup, counsel for the National Organization for the
Reform of Marijuana Laws. "Well, there's some sense that they might
turn out in higher numbers than in the past and that, if they do,
it's almost entirely because of Proposition 19."

The initiative -- which seeks to legalize marijuana in certain
quantities and give local governments the authority to tax and
regulate its production and sale -- is creating a palpable excitement
among potential young voters, according to experts, and could help
decide who winds up representing the state in the U.S. Senate and who
ends up sitting in the governor's mansion.

In Humboldt County, which inarguably has more at stake in the outcome
of Proposition 19 than most of the state, the initiative's potential
impacts on turnout are hazy at best, and local politicos say it's
anyone's guess how things will shake out Tuesday.

Generally, voter turnouts are lowest for primary elections in midterm
years, when there's little on the ballot to excite the general
public. For example, in the June Primary Election in Humboldt County,
only 48 percent of registered voters cast a ballot. In 2006, 9,000
more people cast ballots in the general election than the primary,
and a Proposition 19 upswelling could drastically change the
complexion of some local races if it brings high numbers of
like-minded voters to the polls.

Kathy Lee, a politics lecturer at Humboldt State University, said
lower turnouts generally favor conservative candidates, as the most
reliable voters are older, whiter, more financially secure and better
educated, and generally lean to the conservative side of things.

"Any time you increase turnout, the general assumption is that you
are bringing out people who don't normally vote," she said, adding
that would generally lean toward liberal candidates and propositions.

Ryan Emenaker, an assistant professor of political science at College
of the Redwoods, said midterm elections -- and low-turnout elections
in general -- tend to bring out the more partisan voters.

How Proposition 19 will factor into the equation is anyone's guess,
but Just Say Now spokesman Michael Whitney has been paying close
attention to the polls and thinks there's reason to believe the
prospect of legal pot will bring lots of young people to the polls,
and could change the landscape of the election.

Whitney said polls indicate a high level of excitement about
Proposition 19 among people ages 18 to 30, with 94 percent of
respondents in one poll saying they were aware of the proposition.

"You can't find 94 percent of voters who are aware of anything,
except maybe who the president is," Whitney said, adding that young
people generally think it's time to end marijuana prohibition. "Not
only are (young people) saying they're likely to turn out, they are
more excited than other voters."

That excitement may also affect other things on the ballot, Whitney said.

"From what we can see in the data, young voters lean more
Democratic," he said. "The polls show that because Proposition 19 is
on the ballot, it's actually saving (embattled incumbent U.S. Sen.)
Barbara Boxer."

In Humboldt County, many people have a vested interest in Proposition
19's outcome, but they don't all see eye-to-eye on the issue, Lee said.

"I think it's one of those propositions that will draw voters to the
polls," she said. "Presumably, it will draw younger voters to the
polls, but it's hard to tell."

Emenaker said it's clear there's plenty of interest in the
initiative, but added that he hasn't seen the kind of advertising
campaigns that it generally takes to flood the polls with issue-minded voters.

"As much as Proposition 19 has been talked about, I don't see people
with yard signs for Proposition 19," he said, drawing a parallel
between it and Proposition 8, the 2008 initiative seeking to prohibit
same sex marriages. "With Prop. 8, you saw lawn signs all over the
place on all sides. I just don't see people being as fired up."

Whatever happens, it seems the nation will be watching.

From his office in Washington, D.C., Stroup said Democrats around
the country will watch California onTuesday. If a flood of young
voters turn out to the polls to pass Proposition 19, bolstering
Democratic candidates in the process, Stroup said you can bet a lot
of marijuana-related ballot measures will crop up in other states in
November 2012.

Whitney agreed.

"If young voters turn out in increased numbers, the question then
becomes: Can this be replicated?" he asked.