CALIFORNIA'S POT VOTE AND MEXICO

MEXICO CITY - If California voters approve a proposition calling for
the legalization of marijuana in Tuesday's midterm elections, get
ready for a domino effect in Mexico and the rest of Latin America. It
is not likely to be immediate, but it will be hard to stop in the near future.

Most of those I've talked to in political, academic and business
circles here say that, if California's Proposition 19 is approved, it
will be very hard for the Mexican government to keep up the
U.S.-backed anti-drug policies related to cracking down on the
marijuana trade.

Ricardo Najera, spokesman for Mexico's Attorney General's Office,
told me the Mexican government will continue its military offensive
against the drug cartels regardless of what happens in California,
but added that approval of Prop. 19 would have a "demoralizing
impact" on Mexico.

"If one country authorizes something that is prohibited in another
country, it creates a very big problem for the country that is
combating that particular crime," Najera said.

The last two Mexican presidents, Ernesto Zedillo and Vicente Fox,
have already come out publicly in favor of decriminalizing - or, in
Fox's case, legalizing - marijuana production and consumption.

President Felipe Calderon's government opposes legalization, but
Calderon has said he is open to holding a national debate about it.

Marijuana sales to the U.S. generate about $1.5 billion a year for
Mexico's drug cartels and account for between 15 percent and 26
percent of the Mexican cartels' overall income, a new RAND
Corporation study says. Experts disagree on whether Prop. 19 would
drain Mexico's drug cartels of much of their income, or reduce their
violence. California is already a major producer of marijuana, and
the cartels could always turn to other illegal activities to make up
for their lost marijuana income.

The Calderon government has invested too much political capital in
the war on drugs, which has claimed more than 28,000 lives over the
past four years, to shift its strategy. But Calderon would support
moves within the United Nations to change international drug
policies, many experts say.

My opinion: It would be a good idea to call for a U.N. Convention to
establish once and for all whether - as marijuana legalization
proponents say - marijuana is less addictive and harmful than alcohol
or tobacco.

If that proves to be the case, then let's go ahead and legalize
marijuana, and use the billions of dollars that are now being spent
on marijuana eradication, interdiction and repression to help fund
education campaigns and treatments to fight harder drugs such as
cocaine and heroin.

At any rate, if Proposition 19 is approved, pro-legalization forces
around the world will get one of their biggest boosts ever.