CALIFORNIA VOTE COULD HAVE SNOWBALL EFFECT

MEXICO CITY -- If California voters approve a proposition calling for
the legalization of marijuana in the Nov. 2 midterm elections, get
ready for a domino effect in Mexico and the rest of Latin America. It
is not likely to be immediate, but it will be hard to stop in the near future.

Granted, the Obama administration would most likely challenge
California's Proposition 19 -- it would allow adults to consume
marijuana for pleasure -- in the courts if it were approved.

Most polls show that the California proposal has a better than even
chance of passing.

But during a visit to Mexico, I found few people in political,
academic and business circles who don't believe that passage of
California's Proposition 19 would have a big impact on this country.

It will be very hard for the Mexican government to keep up its
U.S.-backed anti-drug policies, especially when it comes to cracking
down on the marijuana trade, they said. How can the United States ask
Mexico to keep up the fight against marijuana smugglers if the drug
becomes legal in California?

Ricardo Najera, spokesman for Mexico's Attorney General's Office,
told me that the Mexican government will continue its military
offensive against the drug cartels regardless of what happens in
California, but added that approval of California's Proposition 19
would have a "demoralizing impact" on Mexico.

"If one country authorizes something that is prohibited in another
country, it creates a very big problem for the country that is
combating that particular crime," Najera said. "It would discourage
authorities that are working on that front."

The last two Mexican presidents, Ernesto Zedillo and Vicente Fox,
have already come out publicly in favor of decriminalizing -- or, in
Fox's case, legalizing -- marijuana production and consumption.

President Felipe Calderon's government opposes legalization, but
Calderon has said he is open to holding a national debate about it.
Several of the likely candidates for Mexico's 2012 presidential
elections have already said they will support legalization of
marijuana if California votes for it.

Marijuana sales to the United States generate about $1.5 billion a
year for Mexico's drug cartels, and account for between 15 and 26
percent of the Mexican cartels' overall income, a new RAND
Corporation study says.

But experts disagree on whether legalization of marijuana in
California would drain Mexico's drug cartels of much of their income,
or reduce their violence. This is because California is already a
major producer of marijuana, and the cartels could always turn to
other illegal activities -- such as kidnappings for ransom or human
trafficking -- to make up for their lost marijuana income.

The Calderon government would most likely not shift toward
legalization of marijuana if the drug is legalized in California
because it has invested too much political capital in the war on
drugs, which has claimed more than 28,000 lives over the past four
years. More likely, Calderon would support moves within the United
Nations to change international drug policies, many experts say.

"If California approves Proposition 19, we may see a snowball
effect," said Luis Astorga, a drug policy researcher with the
National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). "Many countries,
such as Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal are likely to ask the
United Nations to call for an international convention on marijuana,
similar to other conventions that were held in 1961, 1971 and 1988.
That would likely lead to a change in the world legal framework that
deals with marijuana."

My opinion: It would be a good idea to call for a U.N. Convention to
establish once and for all whether -- as marijuana legalization
proponents say -- marijuana is less addictive and harmful than
alcohol or tobacco.

If that proves to be the case, then let's go ahead and legalize
marijuana, and use the billions of dollars that are now being spent
on marijuana eradication, interdiction, and repression to help fund
education campaigns and treatments to fight harder drugs such as
cocaine and heroin.

At any rate, if Proposition 19 is approved, the impact of the vote
will be greater abroad than in California, where medical use of
marijuana has long been legal, and possession of small amounts of the
drug are barely punished with the equivalent of a speeding ticket.
Pro-legalization forces around the world would get one of their
biggest boosts ever.