MISSING THE FOREST FOR THE WEED

Boston - In the upcoming California referendum on legalizing
marijuana for recreational use, Mexican President Felipe Calderon and
U.S. drug czar Gil Kerlikowske have something in common.

Both are missing the forest for the weed. According to recent polls,
Californians are on the verge of approving the legalization of
marijuana and overthrowing nearly a century of failed American drug
prohibition. Hail to the Golden State.

In the four decades since President Richard Nixon declared a "War on
Drugs," the toll of prohibition includes at least $1 trillion in taxes
spent, according to The Wall Street Journal. Worse are the millions of
lives damaged by prison time and street violence. In 2007, for
example, about 500,000 people were in jail on drug charges.

Yet, while drug preferences go in and out of style, total use by
Americans of all stripes remains virtually unchanged.

The toll in Latin America, and especially Mexico today, is even more
tragic. More than 28,000 Mexicans have died in the last four years in
a macabre war among drug cartels and the government. Yet, along the
U.S.-Mexico border, the ruthless cartels remain more powerful than the
government. And there is no light at the end of the tunnel, there or
here.

We parents understandably worry that legalization might encourage drug
usage by our children, but that's a management issue, as with alcohol.
The drugs already are readily available anyway. Instead of hurting
children, what legalization really does is undercut the gangs, keep
our young people out of jail and reduce the violence.

Still, Calderon and Kerlikowske, with the Obama administration in tow,
oppose the California measure.

Kerlikowske recently went to Mexico City to ensure that the government
there doesn't give in to the growing popular demands by Mexicans,
including former President Vicente Fox, to legalize marijuana and help
stop the spilling of Mexican blood so that Americans can toke an
illegal substance virtually at will.

He needn't have worried. The strait-laced and highly determined
Calderon had hosted an honest national debate on the issue, but in a
visit to Tijuana a week ago, he made clear that he had no intention of
letting up on the fight.

He further told The Associated Press that California's legalization
would amount to hypocrisy while the U.S. keeps pressuring Mexico to be
forceful.

Calderon is right, but only if you don't see the California referendum
for what it is: a step. And a very big one, considering that
California represents one-seventh of American marijuana consumption
and has long been a first-mover in American cultural and political
trends.

Other small American steps, moreover, already have been taken. Since
California approved "medical marijuana" in 1996, 14 states and the
District of Columbia have followed in what is - let's admit it - a
veiled sort of legalization by wink. The usage is illegal under
federal law, but the Obama administration, like the Bush one before
it, has largely let states and communities do what they want.

If the California law passes, anyone 21 years and older can possess up
to one ounce of marijuana, enough for dozens of joints. Ingesting in
public or around minors would be banned, as would possessing the drug
on school grounds or driving under its influence. Residents could grow
their own small plots. Other drugs would remain illegal.

A study released this week by the Rand Corporation questioned how much
the new law might reduce Mexican violence. The study suggested that
Mexican cartels derive between 15 percent to 26 percent of their
income from marijuana, and not the 60 percent often cited.

Given also that roughly half of U.S. consumption is homegrown, cartel
export revenues might only be cut between 2 percent and 4 percent,
though it could go as high as 20 percent if California takes over the
U.S. market by exporting to the rest of the country, the study said.

But what all this means for the U.S. and Mexico is that more steps
away from prohibition need to follow. Issues such as pricing, taxation
and other drugs also need careful confronting. But marijuana and
California are good beginnings.