Election 2010

PROP. 19 MAY NOT HURT DRUG CARTELS

Report Says Legalizing Pot in California Will Not Seriously Curtail
Mexican Gang Profits.

Proposition 19, which would partially legalize marijuana in
California, would do little to curtail the violent Mexican
organizations that smuggle it across the border, according to a new
study by drug policy researchers that takes aim at one of the main
arguments proponents have made for the initiative.

The report released Tuesday by Rand Corp., the nonpartisan research
institute in Santa Monica, estimates that legalized marijuana could
displace the Mexican marijuana sold in California, but concludes that
would erase no more than 2% to 4% of the revenues the gangs receive
from drug exports.

"It's hard to imagine a scenario where Prop. 19 has a dramatic
influence on their revenues. We just don't see that happening," said
Beau Kilmer, co-director of Rand's Drug Policy Research Center.

The researchers said the only way California's legal pot could cut
significantly into cartel revenues is if it were sold across the
country. They were skeptical that would happen. "It's very hard to
imagine that the feds would sit idly by and just let California
marijuana dominate the country," Kilmer said.

Much of the analysis rests on the conclusion that drug organizations
earn far less from marijuana exported to the United States than
previously estimated. Researchers put that income at about $1.5
billion, while federal government reports have set it as high as $14.3 billion.

Proposition 19 would allow cities and counties to authorize the
cultivation and sales of marijuana. It's unclear how many would do
that, but some cities, such as Oakland, are already poised to approve
it. It's also unclear whether the Obama administration would allow
it, since marijuana is illegal under federal law. The researchers do
not address those issues.

The initiative would also allow people 21 and older to possess as
much as an ounce and grow up to 25 square feet of marijuana.

The initiative on the Nov. 2 ballot has triggered a serious debate
south of the border, where a four-year campaign against drug gangs
has left about 30,000 people dead. Last week, Mexican President
Felipe Calderon stressed his opposition, saying that the U.S. has
done too little to suppress consumption. But Calderon's predecessor,
Vicente Fox, supports the initiative and has called for legalization in Mexico.

Stephen Gutwillig, California director of the Drug Policy Alliance
and an advocate of the initiative, said marijuana prohibition has
failed because it has created a massive underground economy
controlled by violent criminals. "Ending marijuana prohibition,
bringing the multibillion-dollar marijuana market into the light of
day and under the rule of law, will deal a major blow to criminal
syndicates on both sides of the border," he said. "California can't
put these cartels out of business by itself, but Prop. 19 is a
crucial first step."

President Obama's drug czar, Gil Kerlikowske, embraced the report's
conclusion that Proposition 19 would not put the cartels out of
business. "When you're a thug and a criminal and a killer, you're not
going to get your MBA and work for a company in Mexico," he said.
Kerlikowske, a former Seattle police chief, said that with drug use
increasing, more emphasis should be placed on protecting young people
from illegal drugs, including marijuana.

The Rand analysis dismissed a frequently cited U.S. government
estimate that marijuana sales make up about 60% of cartel export
revenues. Marijuana revenues fall between 15% and 26%, according to
the report.The researchers could find no documentation to support the
higher estimate.

"This 60% figure is a truly mythical number, one that appeared out of
nowhere and that has acquired great authority," they wrote. "This
figure should not be taken seriously."

Kerlikowske said it was based on outdated information and said he is
pressing for better data collection. "It's pretty hard to foster
support for public policy if your numbers are soft," he said.

The report notes that U.S. government estimates of marijuana
production "have long been inconsistent and sometimes implausible."
To illustrate the absurdity of one production estimate, the
researchers calculated that regular users would have to smoke a joint
every two hours they are awake.

As part of their study, which they acknowledge is replete with
uncertainties that could alter the results, the researchers made
numerous calculations such as determining the average weight of a
joint: 0.46 grams.

The researchers conclude that Mexican marijuana, which is lower in
quality and and contains less of the main psychoactive ingredient
than California-grown pot, has a U.S. market share between 40% and 67%.

Comparing the Mexican drug gangs to the American Mafia, the
researchers said that they would find other businesses to replace
pot, just as the Mafia replaced bootlegging when alcohol prohibition
ended. In the short term, they concluded, violence might even
increase as gangs fight over smaller revenues.