UP IN SMOKE

Support for Pot Prop. 19 Grows as Public's Backing for Legalization
Climbs Higher

In the haze of memory, aging liberal boomers may recall California in
the 1960s as a permissive playground of public forbearance and freedom
to consume mass quantities of marijuana.

In fact, new data show the Summer of Love era was marked by widespread
disapproval and intolerant public attitudes about the use of pot -
in sharp contrast to more laissez-faire views of voters across the
state today. As Californians prepare to cast ballots on Proposition
19, which would effectively legalize possession of small quantities of
marijuana for personal use, a Field Poll report on four decades of
research shows that nearly four times as many voters now support such
a move as did in 1969.

The study comes as Field, which represents the gold standard of public
opinion surveys in California, reports that a significant plurality of
voters now supports Prop. 19, which also proposes taxation of the
production, sales, and distribution of pot. After trailing three
months ago, proponents of the measure have pushed ahead of those who
oppose it, as awareness of the measure has increased across the state.

By 49 percent, likely voters now say they expect to vote yes on the
measure (and 42 percent say they'll vote no), a major, 11-point swing
in favor of it compared to a poll taken in July, when the initiative
trailed by four points. Significantly, 84 percent of the likely
electorate now says they have heard about Prop. 19, far more than any
of the other eight propositions on the ballot.

As a political matter, however, there are big fault lines between key
groups of voters:

. Democrats, by 60 percent in favor to 28 percent against, and
nonpartisan independents, by 62 to 33 percent, overwhelmingly back
Prop. 19, with the balance of voters in each case still undecided.
Republicans, however, oppose it even more strongly, 66 to 27 percent,
with just 7 percent of GOP voters still undecided.

. Voters in California's coastal counties, who tend to be more
liberal, favor legalization, 54 to 38 percent, while inland counties
and the Central Valley, areas that represent the political base of
state conservatives, oppose the initiative by a nearly identical
margin, as 52 percent say they plan to vote no and 37 percent told
poll takers they expect to vote yes.

. Men back Prop. 19 by a strong majority, 54 to 38 percent,
while women say they are against it, by a slight plurality of 46 to 44
percent, with the rest still undecided. The measure also leads among
voters of every age group, except those 65 and older (36 to 53 percent).

Historically, California ballot measures that do not lead in early
polling, along with those that fall short of majority approval in such
preelection surveys, routinely lose, largely because voters who do not
focus on initiatives until late in the process overwhelmingly vote no
on them. While favorable opinion about Prop. 19 still falls slightly
short of a majority, the fact that it has become considerably more
popular as voters have learned more about it is an important
development for sponsors and foes alike.

Because of California's reputation as the birthplace of political
trends that spread eastward, passage of Prop. 19 would doubtless
become a major national story. However, it would not be entirely
unexpected, given the latest compilation of long-term trends in the
changing attitudes about marijuana among state voters, which the Field
Poll began tracking more than 40 years ago:

. In 1969, only 13 percent of Californians favored legalization,
while a total of 75 percent supported either strict enforcement of
existing laws or passage of new and tougher legislation.

. By 1983, support for legalization had more than doubled, but
even at that, only 30 percent favored the change, compared to 56
percent who still backed tough enforcement of then-current laws or
even stricter sanctions against the drug.

. Today, 50 percent of voters say they favor legalization of
marijuana, while 33 percent want greater law enforcement efforts
against it, a huge swing of 79 percent in the direction of liberalized
public policies on the issue.

This shift in attitudes now also translates into broad support for
California's medical marijuana law, despite high-profile controversies
about how it should be applied and enforced, in Santa Barbara and
around the state. Overall, 74 percent of those surveyed favor the
state's policy on medical marijuana - which itself is
defined by a 1996 ballot initiative - including large
majorities among all partisan political groups and within every
demographic category.

The complete Field Poll research on long-range trends about pot is
here ( tinyurl.com/2cdg24g ) and the most recent polling on Proposition
19 is here ( tinyurl.com/22of73c ).