POT-LEGALIZATION MEASURE MAY BOOST CALIFORNIA DEMS

Some issues can affect voter turnout, but there's debate on whether
Proposition 19 is one of them.

Asked by a reporter at the state party convention this summer what he
thought might save Democrats at the polls, California Democratic Party
chairman John Burton had one word: "Pot."

Proposition 19, he elaborated in a recent interview, could bring to
the polls young and nontraditional voters who usually skip the midterm
elections. Those voters, Burton reasoned, would "more likely than not"
vote for Democrats and provide some relief for the party in what looks
nationally to be a grim year.

"It's just what my gut tells me," Burton said. "But I've been around
long enough that my gut is smarter than my brain."

If Burton's gut is right, it would mean a fundamental shift is
underway in pot politics. Conventional wisdom in the marijuana
community holds that ballot initiatives should be run during president
election years, so as to ride the turnout wave the top-of-the-ticket
race creates. What Burton is suggesting is that politicians now may be
able to ride marijuana's wave.

Issues can galvanize voters

It is not unheard of for a ballot initiative to eclipse the candidate
campaigns during an election season, said Daniel Smith, a political
science professor at the University of Florida who studies the
subject. Using detailed statistical analysis, Smith has shown that
certain ballot issues - gay marriage or minimum-wage measures, for
instance - can not only boost voter turnout but also shape how voters
view and choose candidates.

"They have to be these highly salient measures that are able to
galvanize people around an issue," Smith said.

And Smith isn't certain marijuana is that type of an issue. For one,
it cuts across party lines more than other issues, uniting progressive
Democrats and libertarian Republicans, while alienating socially
conservative members of both parties. A recent survey from the firm
Public Policy Polling found just such an effect, with 56 percent of
Democrats and 30 percent of Republicans supporting the California
measure. Overall, the poll showed Proposition 19 ahead, but with less
than 50 percent of the vote and still with 15 percent of voters undecided.

Second, Smith said, there is no research suggesting past marijuana
elections have generated higher turnouts. A Denver Post analysis of 26
statewide marijuana-related elections since 1980 - using data compiled
by George Mason University political science professor Michael
McDonald - reached the same conclusion.

The analysis found that average voter turnout rate for even-year
statewide elections in the 12 states surveyed was about 54 percent of
the voting-eligible population. In years where marijuana was on the
ballot - either for medical marijuana, legalization or
drug-crime-sentencing reform - the average turnout was nearly
identical, about 53 percent. And there was virtually no difference in
turnout rates during elections when marijuana won versus when
marijuana lost.

The Post also found no noticeable change to which party voters
selected during marijuana elections.

Closely watched race

In Colorado, for instance, voters have elected Democrats about 43
percent of the time in state-and-federal-level partisan elections
since 1980. During the state's two marijuana elections - 2000 and 2006
- - voters elected Democrats about 51 percent of the time. But
Coloradans have been choosing Democrats more often in recent years,
and since 1998 the state has elected Democrats about 49 percent of the
time.

In California, where residents have voted on marijuana three times in
the past two decades, voters have picked Democrats about 59 percent of
the time since 1980. During the marijuana elections - all in
presidential years - they elected Democrats 60 percent of the time.

Still, Smith said political scientists and pollsters will be closely
watching Proposition 19 to see what impact it has on California's
overall election.

California Democrats, meanwhile, have only cautiously embraced the
measure, despite Burton's analysis. The state party is neutral on the
measure, and the party's top-of-the-ticket candidates are opposing it.
But a number of party subgroups and local party chapters have endorsed
the initiative.