DEMOCRATS LOOK TO CULTIVATE POT VOTE IN 2012

Party Considers Legalization Efforts In Swing States Amid Signs California
Measure Is Exciting Young, Liberal Voters

Democratic strategists are studying a California marijuana-legalization
initiative to see if similar ballot measures could energize young,
liberal voters in swing states for the 2012 presidential election.

Some pollsters and party officials say Democratic candidates in
California are benefiting from a surge in enthusiasm among young
voters eager to back Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana in
certain quantities and permit local governments to regulate and tax
it.

Party strategists and marijuana-legalization advocates are discussing
whether to push for similar ballot questions in 2012 in Colorado and
Nevada-both expected to be crucial to President Barack Obama's
re-election-and Washington state, which will have races for governor
and seats in both houses of Congress.

Already, a coalition of Democratic-leaning groups has conducted a poll
in Colorado and Washington to test the power of marijuana measures to
drive voter turnout.

Ballot measures typically don't increase turnout on a mass scale.
Still, strategists in both parties argue certain ballot measures can
help activate targeted groups of voters and campaign volunteers in
numbers that can be significant in close elections.

Democratic strategists liken the marijuana effort to the 2004 ballot
drives to ban gay marriage in Ohio and 10 other states. Whether those
measures helped then-President George W. Bush win that year remains a
point of debate, as turnout was high even in states without the issue
on the ballot. But many conservatives say the measure drove thousands
to the polls in Ohio, the election's central battleground, where Mr.
Bush won by just two percentage points, or about 118,000 votes.

Now, some Democratic strategists say marijuana legalization could do
the same for their party. Should they move forward in 2012, they
likely would have the backing of liberal philanthropist Peter Lewis,
chairman of Progressive Insurance Cos.

Mr. Lewis said through a spokesman that changing marijuana laws is
"emerging as one of the leading national issues in the coming
years. Change is inevitable and my priority is to make that change
positive."

Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, conducted a survey in late
August to test the effect of the California measure on voter turnout.
In her poll, a quarter of Democrats said they were "extremely
interested" in voting in this year's elections for governor and
senator. When told about the marijuana measure, the number jumped to
38%, she said. She found no effect on Republican turnout.

"Moving forward, these kinds of initiatives could have a coattail
effect for Democratic candidates," she said. She declined to say who
hired her to test on the marijuana issue, saying just that it was a
pro-Democratic group.

Surveys by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling suggest
California voters under 30 years old are more likely to vote this year
than their counterparts in other states. People in that age group make
up 11% of California voters likely to turn out in November-compared
with 8% of the likely electorate or less in Illinois, Connecticut, New
Hampshire and Michigan, all of which have competitive statewide
elections. In the last midterms, in 2006, voters under 30 were 6.5% of
the California electorate, according to data compiled for the
non-partisan Field Poll.

Tom Jensen, polling director for PPP, said the results suggest the
marijuana initiative is driving voter interest among those under 30.
He said the interest may be boosting Democratic candidates,
particularly Sen. Barbara Boxer (D., Calif.), who has built a lead
over GOP challenger Carly Fiorina recently.

The trend was identified in recent days by Jon Walker, an analyst at
the liberal blog Fire Dog Lake, which has been pushing for marijuana
legalization. Mr. Walker wrote that "the evidence is strong" that
Proposition 19, not California Democratic candidates, was mobilizing
young voters.

Blair Butterworth, a Democratic consultant in Washington state who
works with legalization advocates, estimated a pot ballot measure
could drive up youth turnout by two to four percentage points-enough
to influence a tight race. "It's not like a home run. But with
elections being so close these days, it's a big difference," he said.

Democratic pollster Andrew Myers found in a December 2009 survey in
Colorado that 45% of Obama "surge voters"-people voting for the
first time in 2008-said they would be more interested in turning out
again if marijuana legalization were on the ballot. "If you are 18 to
29, it's far and away the most compelling reason to go out and vote,"
Mr. Myers said.

Still, these conclusions are under debate, even among Democrats. Roger
Salazar, a Democratic consultant advising police chiefs and businesses
on an anti-legalization campaign, called the evidence for increased
turnout "largely anecdotal." "There are a lot of pot-smoking
voters-but not that many," he said.

Few political candidates support marijuana legalization. In
California, the Democratic and Republican candidates for Senate and
governor oppose Proposition 19. Mr. Obama opposes legalization and
would face political pressure to challenge the law if Proposition 19
passes.

A recent Field Poll said Proposition 19 was favored by 49% of likely
voters and opposed by 42%.

[sidebar]

Pot Shots

Voter preferences regarding California's Proposition 19, the
marijuana-legalization initiative

All voters: Yes: 49% - undecided: 9% - No: 42%

Among ages 18 - 39: Yes: 59% - undecided: 8% - No: 33%

Among Democrats: Yes: 60% - undecided: 12% - No: 28%

Source: Field poll of 599 likely voters conducted Sept. 14-21; margins of
error +/- 4.1 pct. pts.