MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION MEASURE GETS BIG LIFT

In a dramatic shift of sentiment, nearly half of California's likely
voters now want to legalize marijuana use in the state, according to a
new Field Poll.

"The numbers have flipped (on Proposition 19) since our July poll,"
said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director. "That's a major change in
the direction of public feelings on legalizing marijuana."

The survey results being released today are especially meaningful
since the first ballots for the Nov. 2 election will be cast in a
little more than a week from now, starting Oct. 4.

The poll also found that voters remain strongly opposed to Proposition
23, which would suspend AB32, the state law limiting greenhouse gas
emissions. Proposition 25, which would end the two-thirds requirement
to pass a state budget, holds a solid lead, but the race appears to be
rapidly tightening.

But it's California's effort to become the first state in the nation
to legalize the sale and use of recreational marijuana for adults 21
and older that's being watched across the country.

Forty-nine percent of those likely voters now support Prop. 19, with
42 percent opposed. In a July poll, 48 percent of those surveyed
planned to vote against the ballot initiative, with 44 percent backing
legalization.

The reversal came despite a total absence of paid advertising for
either side. Neither supporters nor opponents of the measure have
raised much money for the Prop. 19 campaign, so far relying on
word-of-mouth and media coverage to get their stories out.

That hasn't kept California voters from paying attention to the race,
however. The poll found that 84 percent had seen or heard about the
effort to legalize marijuana. By contrast, fewer than 40 percent of
the voters had heard anything about the other two ballot measures in
the survey.

Nine percent of voters are undecided on Prop. 19, which DiCamillo said
isn't much of a surprise.

"Everyone knows about it, and it isn't that complicated an issue," he
added.

For supporters, the bump in the numbers shows that their message is
getting through.

"Police, sheriffs and judges have been speaking out recently in
support of Prop. 19's commonsense solution to control and tax
marijuana like alcohol and tobacco - to allow police to focus on
violent crime," said Dan Newman, a spokesman for the Yes on 19 campaign.

Opponents of the measure, who include a number of law-enforcement
figures, are confident the numbers will change.

"Obviously, this is a volatile electorate, but that doesn't change the
fact that no poll has shown (legalization supporters) with the 50
percent they need to win," said Roger Salazar, a spokesman for the No
on 19 effort.

In 1996, California voters legalized the use of medical marijuana,
passing Prop. 215 with nearly 56 percent of the vote. A 1972 effort to
legalize marijuana in the state, also Prop. 19, was steamrolled,
collecting only a third of the votes.

More than 40 years of polling by Field shows just how dramatic the
shift on marijuana has been. In 1969, just 13 percent of California
adults wanted to legalize marijuana, while 49 percent called on the
state to pass new, tougher laws against the drug.

By 1983, 30 percent of registered voters favored legalization, but 32
percent still wanted to crack down on users.

Now close to 50 percent of registered voters want marijuana legalized
and only 14 percent want harsher laws.

Men and women have very different views of Prop. 19, as do the young
and the old. While 54 percent of men back legalization, only 44
percent of women support Prop. 19. Nearly 60 percent of the youngest
voters, those under 40, want to see marijuana made legal. Fifty-three
percent of those 65 and older oppose it.

"With a lot of people considering and reconsidering ... this is
probably not as solid a 49 percent (support) as can be," DiCamillo
said. "Turnout matters a great deal, and if the young voters don't
turn out, it could make a big difference."

Support for Prop. 19 also breaks along geographic and political lines,
with the heavily Democrat coastal counties 54 percent in favor while
the more Republican inland areas are 52 percent opposed. Not
surprisingly, the measure's strongest support comes from the Bay Area
and Los Angeles County, where just under 60 percent favor
legalization.

More than 60 percent of Democrats and decline-to-state voters plan to
vote for Prop. 19.

A Field survey taken in July found that 60 percent of Bay Area
registered voters said they had used marijuana, far above the 47
percent state average. Slightly more than half the state's men
reported using the drug, compared with 43 percent of women.

The poll found little movement surrounding Prop. 23, even though it's
becoming a major battleground in the races for governor and U.S.
Senate. While the 45 percent who oppose suspending the greenhouse gas
rules dropped from July's 48 percent, support for the initiative also
slipped from 36 percent in July to 34 percent in the newest poll. More
than a fifth of voters now are undecided.

Support for the Democrat-backed Prop. 25 has skidded dramatically
since July, when it was supported by 65 percent of the voters. The new
poll has proponents of the measure with a 46 to 30 percent lead, but
more tightening is likely, DiCamillo said.

The July poll had 58 percent of Republicans supporting the change,
which party leaders argue will allow Democrats to pass a state budget
without any GOP votes. In the new poll, Republican support has dropped
to 30 percent, with another 30 percent undecided.

"This is a measure that is still in flux, and you can't really tell
where it will end up," DiCamillo said. "Republican voters are in
transition ... as they try to decide who the winners and losers will
be."

The poll is based on a telephone survey taken from Sept. 14-21 of 857
registered voters, including 599 identified as likely to vote in
November. The margin of error based on the sample is plus or minus 4.1
percentage points.