JUAREZ VIOLENCE: HUMAN TOLL DEFIES BELIEF

It seems that there is no end in sight to the violence in Juarez. That
pessimistic observation has been borne out by experts recently, and
it's not a pleasant prospect.

An expert in the field of global organized crime, Edgardo Buscaglia,
recently used a comparison with Colombia, which he said took
approximately 20 years to extract itself from its drug-related problems.

However, he said, Mexican President Felipe Calderon doesn't have the
support in his country to do what needs to be done, such as arresting
and prosecuting high-level, cartel-involved politicians and
businesspeople.

It must be said that this lack of support could be because no one
really knows who in the government -- local, state or federal -- is
"clean" and who is "dirty." Or there is unwillingness to go after them.

Yet, Buscaglia said, if the necessary steps aren't taken, "... then
Mexico will continue advancing toward becoming a failed state."

Buscaglia isn't the only one voicing this concern.

Hal Brands, in a study published last year by the U.S. Army War
College Strategic Studies Institute, said, "Narcotics-driven
corruption is rampant, government control of large swaths of the
country is tenuous at best, and predictions that Mexico is on the way
to becoming a failed state are frequent."

Acknowledgment of the "failed state" possibility is generally avoided
like the plague by both Mexican and U.S. officials -- at least publicly.

But it's arguably the biggest reason that both countries must
cooperate -- and accept cooperative efforts in this fight.

The U.S. has huge economic, social, historical, cultural and human
ties to Mexico. For any number of reasons, we cannot allow Mexico to
become a failed state.

Why must this not happen?

Because one of the horrible symptoms of Mexico's problems is the
tragic human toll being taken. A study by the Autonomous University of
Juarez indicates that 230,000 people have fled Juarez, inarguably as a
result of the violence, and a Mexican government report says 28,000
people have been killed in Mexico since Calderon began cracking down
on the cartels in 2006.

Approximately 6,400 have died in Juarez.

And there doesn't seem to be an answer in sight.