ESTIMATED 230,000 PEOPLE HAVE LEFT JUAREZ DUE TO VIOLENCE

About 230,000 people have left Juarez, many of them because of the
violence and insecurity, according to a study by the Autonomous
University of Juarez (UACJ). About 54 percent of those went to the
United States and 45 percent to El Paso.

The drug violence in Mexico is likely to continue past Felipe
Calderon's term and through the next president's administration, said
Samuel Logan, regional analyst for Latin America at iJET Intelligent
Risk Systems in Washington.

Edgardo Buscaglia, a prominent global organized crime expert, says you
can't put a deadline on the drug violence. In Colombia, the battled
lasted 20 years before improvements were noted. And, unless the
government adopts a different strategy, Buscaglia said Mexico will
continue its path toward becoming a failed stated.

In a telephone interview, Buscaglia, who was in Berlin, alleged that a
third of Mexico's politicians are compromised by organized crime, and
that Calderon does not have the political support he needs to carry
out a full frontal war against the cartels.