CALIFORNIA MARIJUANA DEBATE RESONATES IN MEXICO

MEXICO CITY - A debate about legalizing marijuana and possibly other
drugs once a taboo suggestion - is percolating in Mexico, a nation
exhausted by runaway violence and a deadly drug war.

The debate is only likely to grow more animated if Californians
approve a ballot initiative on Nov. 2 to legalize marijuana for
recreational use in the state.

Mexicans are keeping a close eye on the Proposition 19 vote, seeing it
as a bellwether.

"If they vote 'yes' to approve the full legalization of marijuana, I
think it will have a radical impact in Mexico," said Jorge Hernandez
Tinajero, a political scientist at the National Autonomous University.

Discussion about legalization flew onto the agenda last month, the
result of President Felipe Calderon's pressing need to win more
support for waging war against criminal organizations profiting hugely
from drug trafficking.

As he held a series of forums with politicians and civic leaders about
faltering security, Calderon suddenly found himself amid a groundswell
of suggestions that legalization - which he described as "absurd" -
should be considered.

Among those throwing their weight behind legalization was former
President Vicente Fox, a member of Calderon's own conservative
National Action Party.

"We should consider legalizing the production, distribution and sale
of drugs," Fox wrote on his blog during the forums.

"Legalizing in this sense does not mean that drugs are good or don't
hurt those who consume. Rather, we have to see it as a strategy to
strike and break the economic structure that allows the mafias to
generate huge profits in their business."

Calderon immediately said Mexico couldn't act on its own to
legalize.

"If drugs are not legalized in the world, or if drugs are not
legalized at least in the United States, this is simply absurd,
because the price of drugs is not determined in Mexico. The price of
drugs is determined by consumers in Los Angeles, or in New York, or in
Chicago or Texas," he said.

Such public debate would have been largely unthinkable a few years
ago. Since Calderon came to office in late 2006, however, a national
gloom has descended on Mexico from relentless cartel violence and a
death toll topping 28,000. The grim mood has provided fertile ground
for public figures who think legalization would undercut the power of
the drug cartels.

Among them are business tycoons such as billionaire Ricardo Salinas
Pliego, who controls broadcaster TV Azteca, and retailer Grupo Elektra.

With his own pro-legalization statement, Fox aligned with another
former president, Ernesto Zedillo, who suggested last year that
prohibition isn't working.

Still, some analysts say debate about legalization coming most
strongly from the political left was an effort to needle Calderon as
much as an exploration of whether legalization is feasible.

Edgardo Buscaglia, an expert on Mexico's criminal syndicates, said
Mexico's government is too weak to legalize and regulate narcotics and
marijuana.

"You need to have regulatory capacity in place," he said. "Mexico does
not even have the capacity to regulate its pharmaceutical products."

Without a better framework, any move to take away penalties for
narcotics would "amount to a subsidy to drug organizations," he said,
as prices and demand remain buoyant for illegal narcotics in the
United States and other countries.

Legislators in August 2009 quietly decriminalized the possession of
less than 5 grams of marijuana, the equivalent of about four joints.
Tiny amounts of cocaine, heroin, Ecstasy, LSD and methamphetamine also
are no longer subject to criminal penalties.

Further measures have been blocked, however, such as one before two
committees of the Chamber of Deputies to permit the use of marijuana
for medical purposes, as 14 U.S. states allow, including California.
Others have been put before the Senate, the legislative assembly of
Mexico City and a local congress in the state of Mexico.

Hernandez Tinajero, the political scientist, said Mexican society may
not be ready for such moves, but that the California ballot measure
would energize the debate.

"Whatever the result may be, it will have a positive impact on
Mexico," he said, and give way to "a far more serious
discussion."

Experts said they can't fully weigh arguments about the impact that
legalization of marijuana in California might have on this country of
111 million or whether steps toward legalization here would weaken
drug syndicates.

That's because so little is known publicly about the revenue streams
of cartels, the extent of production of marijuana, crystal meth and
heroin, and the range of revenue from other criminal
enterprises.

Counternarcotics officials say several Mexican cartels, particularly
La Familia Michoacana, are deeply involved in marijuana production and
sales in California.