RAND SUPPLIES A DOSE OF CLEAR ANALYSIS ON POT

One of the most common arguments in favor of legalizing marijuana, as
November's Proposition 19 will ask California's voters to do, is that
the drug is already easily available. According to this line of
thinking, anybody who wants to smoke it already is, whatever the law
says, so taking the next step and making it legal couldn't possibly
lead to the increased use -- and related social consequences -- that
opponents warn the state would see if the initiative passes.

Well, the Rand Corp., which doesn't have any obvious political stake
in the matter, isn't so sure.

A study by the Santa Monica-based think tank's Drug Policy Research
Center released last week points to a few economic principles that are
pretty obvious but carry more weight from an independent,
authoritative source.

Namely, legalization would dramatically increase the supply of
marijuana and eliminate the premium that illegal growers can command
to compensate for their risks. Together, those factors would cut the
price, Rand estimates, by more than 80 percent -- to around $38 per
ounce. While the analysts stressed the uncertainty of predicting how
that lower price would affect use, they suggested consumption could
easily double.

But even if users puffed twice as much, the dramatically lower prices
would cut into another main reason supporters cite in favor of
Proposition 19 -- the revenue for the state. The potential sales taxes
would plunge along with prices, though it would still all be new money
for the government.

A further wrinkle -- the potential for cannabis tourism, as marijuana
smokers from around the United States converged on the new legal
haven. The moniker "Oaksterdam," a riff on the famously drug-tolerant
Dutch city of Amsterdam, would be more apt than ever.

Maybe there's money to be made in a newly lucrative trade. It
certainly would be a social revolution -- even for a state where
marijuana is already common and the taboo against its use has greatly
faded.

It's hard to tell whether Californians are ready to take that plunge,
but up to now the debate has been largely carried out by utopians who
think legalization will cure all our problems and drug warriors who
think the world would end. The Rand study provides some clear-headed
thinking about how Proposition 19 might really play out.

We could use a lot more of that between now and November.