VIOLENCE TESTS MEXICO'S VOTERS AND A RESURGENT PARTY

MEXICO CITY-Voters in 14 Mexican states are scheduled to go to the
polls Sunday, a test of the electorate's resolve after this week's
assassination of a leading national candidate and other drug-cartel
linked violence.

The election stands to shift the power balance in Mexico. The
Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled Mexico under a
virtual one-party system for much of the past century, is a favorite
in many of the races for local representatives and mayors in 14 states.

Twelve of these states are holding gubernatorial contests, and
prominent political analysts have said the PRI could make a clean
sweep. A strong showing Sunday could give the party important momentum
ahead of presidential elections in 2012.

This week's killing of Rodolfo Torre, the front-runner in northern
Tamaulipas state, cast a shadow over the polls.

Mexicans widely believe the assassination was the work of a drug
cartel. Some analysts say it was a broader attempt by drug gangs to
discourage voter turnout and weaken the legitimacy of state and
national authorities-with the ultimate goal of undermining President
Felipe Calderon, who has launched an all-out attack on drug gangs.

On Wednesday, a severed head was found in front of the home of Hector
Murguia, the leading candidate for mayor in Ciudad Juarez, understood
as an act of intimidation by a drug cartel, local news reports said.

"The drug cartels will trumpet a low turnout as a sign that they are
gaining strength amid declining public support for Calderon's crusade
against their organizations," George Grayson, a Mexico expert and
professor at the College of William and Mary, wrote in a report for
the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

But after the killing of Mr. Torre, Mr. Grayson said, the PRI could be
hurt in 2012 if it isn't seen by voters as sufficiently tough on
organized crime.

The political violence adds to a drumbeat of drug-related killings. On
Friday, 21 people died near Nogales, a few miles from the Arizona
border, in a massive gunbattle involving drug gangs.

The political struggles are occurring in areas such as Oaxaca, a poor
southern state where the PRI has held power since the Mexican
Revolution in the early 20th century. At the national level, the PRI
governed for seven decades, until 2000.

On Thursday, some 200 members of a teachers' union that supports an
opposition candidate blocked roads in Oaxaca and tore up PRI publicity
materials. The last time Oaxaca held a gubernatorial race, in 2004,
several people died, including one elderly man, an opposition
supporter who was bludgeoned to death by PRI supporters.

The PRI's resurgent national strength could have major consequences
for Mexico. The party has had no consistent ideology, left or right,
other than power. The largest party in the lower house, the PRI has
blocked most of Mr. Calderon's efforts to make the economy more
competitive.

The PRI has also sharply criticized the president's assault on drug
gangs, leading some to fear that the party would make a U-turn on the
drug war if elected. PRI supporters say their party's criticism is
aimed at improving the drug-war strategy by focusing more on areas
like attacking cartel finances.

The death of Mr. Torre, the PRI's standard-bearer in Tamaulipas, isn't
expected to pose much of an obstacle for the party. Suspicion has
fallen largely on the Zetas cartel, which is waging a turf war with
its former allies, Tamaulipas's powerful Gulf cartel, and may have
wanted to destabilize its rivals' home turf by killing the man almost
sure to be the next governor.

Egidio Torre, the slain candidate's brother, has been chosen to
replace his sibling on the ballot and is expected to win easily.

The PRI's resurgence is a marked turnaround from a decade ago, when
the party lost the presidential election and its nationwide grip on
power. The PRI was described by many as a political dinosaur, an
ossified party hobbled by corruption. It suffered an embarrassing
defeat in 2006, finishing third in presidential elections.

The PRI hasn't changed much over that decade. But Mr. Calderon's
conservative National Action Party, or PAN, has disappointed voters.

More than 23,000 people have died in drug-related violence since Mr.
Calderon took office in December 2006. In addition to failing to stop
the killings, the party has suffered its own corruption scandals.
Under PAN, the economy has grown just 1.7% a year on average since
2000.

A survey by the Mitofsky polling group showed the PRI is now the
country's "least rejected" political party, with only 19% of Mexicans
saying they would never vote for it. Some 30% said they would never
vote for the PAN, and 38% would shun the leftist Party of the
Democratic Revolution, which has been hurt by internal divisions and a
hard-left faction that has turned off middle-class voters.

The resurgent PRI crushed the PAN in last year's midterm elections,
becoming the lower house's largest party. The current PRI governor of
Mexico state, Enrique Pena Nieto, is widely seen as the front-runner
to win the 2012 presidential election.

Aware of this, the PAN and left-wing PRD, normally bitter rivals, have
formed an unlikely alliance to field joint gubernatorial candidates in
five states where, like Oaxaca, the PRI has been in charge for more
than 80 years.

The alliance shows how desperate both parties are as the PRI gains
momentum. Most PRD members refused to acknowledge Mr. Calderon's close
2006 electoral victory, with party activists organizing massive
demonstrations and legislators seeking to prevent him from taking the
oath of office.

If Mexican democracy now finds itself under attack from cartels, it
has also been weakened by the continued survival of PRI fiefdoms in
many states, analysts say. In some cases, PRI governors are more
powerful than ever, thanks to a weakened presidency, large
discretionary spending power, and an old law that shields elected
leaders from legal prosecution during their terms in office.

Under the hierarchical system run by the PRI in most of the past
century, state governors were more accountable to presidents. "The
president of the republic was a censor and controller of possible
abuses that could occur in the states," says Gabino Cue, a former PRI
official who is now the PAN-PRD alliance candidate for Oaxaca
governor. "Those control mechanisms no longer exist."

In the state of Puebla, PRI Gov. Mario Marin's government cruised
through a 2006 scandal in which he allegedly ordered state police to
harass a well-known journalist for accusing a local businessman of
involvement in a child-prostitution ring. Mr. Marin has denied any
wrongdoing.

In southern Oaxaca state, PRI Gov. Ulises Ruiz was accused of rights
abuses in cracking down on a teachers' strike in 2006, but weathered
the storm and stayed in power. He denies any wrongdoing.