END OF THE CULTURE WARS

Young Republicans Embrace Low Taxes, but Reject Moral Issues

You know something is changing in American mores when the supposed
leader of the culture wars from the right, Sarah Palin, declares that
smoking pot is "a minimal problem" and that "if somebody's gonna
smoke a joint in their house and not do anybody any harm, then
perhaps there are other things our cops should be looking at to engage in."

Like many other pointless wars, the culture conflict has mainly
resulted in exhaustion. Now the troops are laying down their arms and
going home.

More and more Americans, particularly in the youngest generation of
adults, are shrugging at drug use, gay relationships, pre-marital
cohabitation, single motherhood, interracial marriage (which is now
all but universally accepted) and gun ownership. More and more people
aren't bothering to lug their church to the voting booth.

If only people between the ages of 18 to 29 voted, 38 states would
support gay marriage, says a study by Jeffrey Lax and Justin Phillips
of Columbia University. Will today's youngsters change their minds
about gay marriage as they age? Don't count on it.

Support for issues such as gays' ability to adopt and marry appears
closely linked to how close you are with gay people. And a
CNN/Opinion Research poll last year said 49% report having a family
member or close friend who is gay. That's up eight points from 1998
and up 17 points from 1992. Among those 65 and older, just one in
three say that.

About two out of five Americans support legalizing pot - one in five
among seniors and three in five among young adults. But the pot
question, unlike the gay-marriage question, has been posed for
decades. So the demographic trends are clearer: even in the Cheech
and Chong-y '70s, support for legalizing marijuana peaked at 30%.
Today's figures are, um, higher than ever - and the Pew figures are
backed by a Gallup survey last fall in which 44% OK'd legalized
toking. Medicinal marijuana enjoys 73% support.

Just about the only encouragement for cultural conservatives lately
has been an uptick in the popularity of the term "pro-life." A Gallup
poll last fall found 51% calling themselves pro-life (before
subsiding to 47% in the most recent survey). But there hasn't been a
surge in calling for the criminalization of abortion, or even for
discarding Roe v. Wade (which could be nixed without any state making
abortion illegal).

Polls over the years consistently show that about three-quarters
think abortion should be legal at least sometimes, and three out of
five support Roe. Even on this most fraught issue, morality and
legality seem to be parting company. Palin, far from calling for a
Constitutional amendment to ban abortion (Ronald Reagan's official
position, though he never did anything about it), simply thinks Roe
should be overturned and each state should be free to make its own
abortion policy. Her moral view - opposing abortion except to save
the life of the mother - is strongly held, but she shows no sign of
wanting to impose it on others. Perhaps she will turn out to be a
libertarian in disguise: Alaska is the state with the second-highest
libertarian presence (after Montana), according to a study by the
Free State Project.

Democrats who have traditionally been spooked by social issues, and
found themselves trying to change the subject when polls showed
voters disagreeing with them on moral questions, must be relieved at
the thought that Republicans will shortly no longer be able to
broadcast fear over their 3G network - God, guns and gays. But the
Democrats shouldn't be so sure about that.

For starters, a move toward a more libertarian America actually helps
the NRA. Pew regularly polls Americans to ask which they find more
important: the right to own guns, or gun control? In 2000, the split
was 29% on the pistol-packing side and 66% shunning firearms. This
spring a Pew poll showed a tie - 46% on each side. Only about half of
Americans even support banning assault weapons, down from
three-quarters 20 years ago. Moreover, a Rasmussen poll this week
found 48% today see government as a threat to individual rights.

It shouldn't be a surprise that in both New Jersey and Massachusetts,
old-guard liberals were recently replaced by Chris Christie and Scott
Brown, libertarian-ish Republicans who are socially liberal but
fiscally conservative.

Moreover, when we've heard the last Southern pol protest that God
didn't launch humanity with Adam & Steve (no, but if he had, the
decor in the Garden of Eden would have been amazing), Republicans
won't be able to hide from their economic positions. Either they
stake out a clear difference with Democrats on fiscal questions, or
they become irrelevant, a party without an argument or a base.

You may have heard a word or two about the Tea Party, which is
fiscally focused. But the accompanying demise of Reagan-era groups
like the Christian Coalition and the Moral Majority is just as
important. The morality armies have failed to inspire their children
to join the crusade.