'PERFECT STORM' SET TO CREATE RECORD OPIUM HARVEST

GRISHK, Helmand Province - Two hours drive from the Afghan city of
Kandahar, 'the perfect storm' is about to break in the fields of
Helmand province, according to a western official.

Here, in the place where British troops are to spend the next three
years, a combination of factors have conspired to produce what is
probably the biggest opium harvest in the history of a province that
last year produced more than 20 per cent of the world's heroin on its own.

A law and order vacuum has allowed an increasingly well organised
drugs mafia, a corrupt local government and resurgent Taleban to
structure the poppy cultivation of the province as never before.

That has combined with fine growing conditions this year to produce
what, if these were wine producers, might be considered a memorable
vintage. And country wide it is now clear that the poppy harvest will
be close to record levels again.

It is a dispiriting blow for the international counter-narcotics
effort as 86 per cent of the world's heroin comes from Afghanistan.

Amongst a gently swaying sea of poppy heads near the town of Grishk,
Haji Shadi Khan, 50, squatted wearily on his haunches and drained a
proffered bottle of water at a single draught.

The harvest began last week and it is brutally labour intensive and
skilled work. Every one of thousands of poppy heads must be lightly
scored with a four bladed razor and then the opium 'milk' that oozes
forth scrapped off and collected. Depending on the quality of the
crop, the operation must be repeated three to seven times.

Behind him in the field his sons Gul Ahmed, 10 and Juma Jan, 7, were
hard at work. Small boys have the advantage of working at the same
height as the poppy heads.

Though he is only a paid labourer and doesn't own the land he is
working Haji Shadi expects to make around $1,800. That represents one
third of the value of the crop on a plot that is four fifths of a
hectare large.

In April a UN rapid assessment which sought only to estimate broad
trends in poppy cultivation offered an alarming picture of likely
production when it suggested that cultivation was down in only three
of Afghanistan's thirty-six provinces and was increasing or strongly
increasing in thirteen.

This then left the British led counter-narcotics effort relying on a
massive eradication effort to make an inroad into the Afghan poppy
crop. However, in the south at least efforts at eradication appear to
have largely failed.

Haji Shadi chuckled merrily as he described how the provincial
governor's eradication team arrived at his fields, enjoyed a
convivial cup of tea and then left again with a wink, $50 the richer.
$50 is equivalent to a month's wages for most government employees.

An estimated 40,000 to 50,000 hectares of poppy are being cultivated
in Helmand this year, at least a 50 per cent increase on last year.

The governor of Helmand Engineer Mohammed Daoud claims to have
eradicated 7,000 hectares of poppy this year.

But even this modest claim is disputed.

"The real figure is around 1,000 hectares," one Western source said.

"The district elders just followed the eradication teams around
handing out wads of money. Sometimes the teams just drove a single
tractor through the field and announced they had eradicated it."

Another Western source described the shambolic progress of a central
government eradication team also sent to Helmand.

Backed by American mercenaries from the Dyncorp corporation, the
force suffered endless delays as Afghan drivers refused to travel to
dangerous areas of the province; a problem compounded when a number
of Afghan police were killed by a roadside bomb clearly intended to
send a warning to the force.

The forces' eventual impact was negligible.

The central eradication force is said to cost US$175m this year.

Such is the glut of opium that is about to flow onto the market that
the price has plummeted to less than US$100 a kilo, 50 per cent lower
than it was a year ago.

The relationship between price and availability is not exact, but the
drop is broadly indicative of anticipated market forces.

Western officials admit to intense frustration in a war where so many
Afghan officials are a part of the narco-criminal problem.

Engineer Daoud, the Helmand governor, is widely respected as an honest man.

But last summer almost 9 tonnes of opium was discovered in the
offices of his predecessor Sher Mohammed Akhundzada, who claimed he
had seized them and was on the point of handing them in.

After intense British and American pressure to have him ousted,
Akhundzada was given a seat in the new upper house of the Afghan parliament.

In his office in Kandahar the province's director of drugs control,
Gul Mohammad Shukran, shifted uncomfortably as the Independent ran
through a list of well known millionaire drug smugglers in the province.

"If I answer your questions I will be dead within three days," he
said, showing us to the door.

Meanwhile, a campaign of Taleban intimidation and assassination is
targeting government officials working across the south.

In Helmand it has been what one Western source called "a methodical slaughter".

Four out of twelve district police chiefs have been killed in six
months, further undermining the effort to establish some sort of order.

The smugglers and the Taleban were increasingly close, with the
Islamic fighters suspending their operations during the poppy harvest
to ensure it is safely out of the way before the Taleban's promised
campaign of summer violence.

The Taleban have a vested interest as they take a tax on opium
produced in the region, which could be worth tens of millions of
dollars this year.

In the face of so much bad news the authorities point to some small
beacons of hope.

In Kandahar province there was some effective eradication under the
new governor, Asadullah Khalid.

In Nangahar province where a remarkable and many thought
unsustainable 96 per cent drop in poppy cultivation was achieved last
year, opium production was expected to bounce back this year after
farmers complained that promised foreign aid to help them grow
alternative crops never materialised.

The ounce has occurred, but not as much as many officials had feared.

- - INDEPENDENT