DID POT INITIATIVE COME A CYCLE TOO SOON?

Recent statewide polls show that an initiative to legalize and
regulate marijuana could be in trouble. But they also show that
opinions skew heavily by age, giving encouragement to those who
believe voters are still likely to choose legalization in the next
few years if the measure loses in November.

A Los Angeles Times/USC poll of 1,506 registered voters found that 49
percent favored legalization and 41 percent were opposed.

The Times poll, conducted May 19 to 26, follows a Public Policy
Institute of California poll released on May 19. That poll showed 49
percent of respondents in favor of legalization and 48 percent
opposed. Both polls had a margin of error of less than three points.

With roughly half the electorate supportive of legalization, the
figures suggest that the November initiative could be in trouble,
because controversial ballot initiatives traditionally lose strength
as the election approaches, their momentum blunted by opponents'
spending.

The PPIC poll, which broke down its results according to age group,
suggested that older voters were more likely to oppose the initiative
while younger voters were in support.

"It does seem like one of those issues where you are for it or
against," said Dean Bonner, a research associate with the PPIC who
worked on the survey, noting that only 3 percent of respondents were
undecided. "There isn't a whole lot of area for deliberation."

This means that turnout could be a key factor in determining the
outcome. If one assumes the "no" side picks up all the undecideds,
the initiative would lose by two points.

A look at demographic trends, meanwhile, suggest that the "yes" side
would narrow that margin significantly each year they waited, via a
combination of older voters dying off and younger people becoming
eligible to vote. That difference could amount to a net difference
of at least a percentage point a year.

Nothing is cast in stone, of course, including poll numbers: People
may change their opinions as they age and move from one demographic
subgroup to the next, and those at one end of the group may have
different opinions than those at the other end.

The Times poll found that voters aged 18 to 29 support the initiative
by 61 percent to 32 percent, with 40 percent "strongly" in favor and
only 20 percent strongly opposed.

With approximately 1.1 million 16- and 17-year-olds who will become
eligible to vote in the next two years, these voters alone could
nearly wipe out a quarter-million vote margin by 2012, at least on
paper.

Of course, younger voters are notoriously hard to get to the polls.
Voter turnout among 18- to 29-year-olds in California has been only
about 25 percent in midterm elections like the one happening this
fall. And the youngest voters in that demographic group also are the
hardest to get out on election day.

That may suggest another reason to have waited until 2012 -
especially with a reelection bid by President Barack Obama on the
ballot. Even if voter turnout among this group isn't as high as in
2008, these new voters alone could push about a net percentage point
on the legalization question over two years.

But California Democratic Party chairman John Burton said that
support for the marijuana initiative could combine with opposition to
the California Chamber of Commerce-backed effort to turn back the AB
32 global warming law, potentially bringing an unusually large
number of young voters out in November.

"Not that all young kids use it, but I think they feel people should
not be thrown in jail for it," Burton said.

Dan Newman, a spokesman for the Regulate, Control and Tax Cannabis
Act of 2010, said his own internal polling showed that this election
could motivate large numbers of young voters. This would skew the
turnout models used by pollsters, he argues, which tend to show low
turnout among young people.

It's also up in the air whether the youngest voters will keep the
trend going as fast as supporters think. The PPIC poll found that 60
percent of people 35-to-44 support legalization, but in the 18-to-34
group, support dropped to 53 percent.

Support was also low among the fastest-growing voter group, Latinos,
the PPIC polls found. Even among Latinos under 45, support was only
40 percent.

Meanwhile, both polls showed that older voters are more likely to
oppose the initiative.

Of those 65 and older, 52 percent are opposed, including 38 percent
who are strongly opposed. Only 35 percent favor the measure, with
only 20 percent strongly in support. The PPIC poll found the same
amount of support among those 65 and older, 35 percent, with 62
percent opposed.

Older people also vote at higher rates, with about 4.5 million voters
65 and older showing up at the polls in 2008. If they turn out in the
same numbers this fall, their numbers would add about a net 600,000
votes to the "no" tally.

But the youngest baby boomers hit 65 next year - and many of those in
the 65 to 70 range are more aligned with boomer values than those of
the generation before. In other words, these people may be more
aligned with the next-younger demographic group in the Times survey,
45 to 64 year olds, who favor the initiative by a 49 percent to 43
percent margin. PPIC found that 53 percent of those 55 to 64
supported the idea.

Older voters are also, of course, more likely to die before the next
election. Death rates are nearly three times as high for people 75 to
84 than they are for those 65-74 - and death rates for those 85 and
older are about three times higher than that. In other words, the
groups most likely to oppose the marijuana effort are also a lot more
likely to die in the next two years, and therefore not to take part
in the next election. Nearly 9 percent of people 75 to 84 will die
over a two-year period; almost a quarter of people 85 and older will
die over that same period.

Even given that older, sicker people are less likely to vote - or to
respond to telephone surveys - a two-year delay would mean that many
of the voters who are most likely to oppose the initiative will die
or become medically unable to vote. Overlaying death rate tables
over the Times survey data suggest that the no side would lose
approximately 130,000 net votes over two years.

"A couple years might not be enough," said Hans Johnson, PPIC
associate director and an expert on demographics. While support for
the idea has been rising rapidly, there may be a small but
significant group of people who get more conservative about pot
legalization as they get older.

"You can imagine that when you have kids, it's not going to change
your idea about gay marriage, but it could change your attitudes
about drugs," Johnson said.

Neither side has yet to spend much money. Newman said this is partly
because of the low number of undecided voters, with each side wanting
to husband their resources. The "yes" side has done a radio spot
featuring endorsements from law enforcement officials.

John Lovell, a lobbyist for the California Narcotic Officers
Association and other law enforcement groups organizing against the
initiative, conceded that support for legalization has been growing
for years. But he said there is evidence that there is a backlash
building.

"I think that marijuana legalization is like any of the other
high-intensity issues, where there is an ebb and flow."

He pointed to the reaction to the growing ubiquity of pot in two
fairly liberal communities. In Los Angeles, he noted, there has been
a push to limit the spread of medical marijuana dispensaries. In
Mendocino County in 2008, meanwhile, there was a grassroots movement
that pushed through Measure B, which put stricter limits on growing
and keeping medical marijuana.

Meanwhile, he said, the opposition to the initiative is just now
organizing. The California Chamber of Commerce came out strongly
against the legalization initiative on Thursday, calling it a
workplace safety issue.

Lovell also pointed to the experience of Proposition 5. That 2008
initiative would have expanded drug treatment as an alternative to
incarceration. It led in early polling, but ended up losing by nearly
20 points after law enforcement agencies attacked it, even though
they were outspent by a wide margin.

"We don't have to match the legalizers dollar for dollar, we just
have to raise enough to get our message out," Lovell said.