SPECIAL REPORT: 'JUAREZ DESERVES THE TITLE OF MOST DANGEROUS CITY IN THE WORLD'

The murder rate in Juarez rivals the most dangerous cities in the
world and is more typical of regions where government has collapsed,
an expert on homicides said.

The violence continued during the weekend, including a shootout
involving the Mexican army that resulted in the arrest of three women
and five men suspected in killings, extortion and arsons in the
Valley of Juarez.

More than 5,300 people have been slain in the Juarez area since the
start of a war between the Sinaloa and Juarez drug cartels in 2008.

There have been at least 15 homicides since Friday and more than
1,100 homicides this year alone in Juarez. By comparison, there has
been one homicide in El Paso this year.

Historically, Juarez is not as deadly as Medellin during the peak of
the drug cartel bloodshed in that Colombian city in the early 1990s.

At its worst, Medellin had a homicide rate of 250 per 100,000
residents, while Juarez last year had a rate of 191, according to the
public safety organization Consejo Ciudadano para la Seguridad
Publica y Justicia Penal (Citizen's Council for Public Security and
Penal Justice).

Medellin, which has 1 million more residents than Juarez, is arguably
considered the most violent city of the past three decades.

"Juarez deserves the title of most dangerous city in the world not
only for its homicide rate but also suffering very high numbers of
other violent crimes," the organization stated in a report last January.

The council reported Juarez last year had higher homicide rates than
San Pedro Sula, Honduras, (119 per 100,000); San Salvador, El
Salvador (95), and Caracas, Venezuela (94).

A CNN report last April listed Juarez in no particular order among
the most dangerous cities in the world, including Karachi, Pakistan;
Beirut, Lebanon; and Cape Town, South Africa.

The number of murders in Juarez is more typical of regions during a
civil war, a revolution or other form of a state breakdown, said
Randolph Roth, a historian who studies homicides.

"Whenever you have a real struggle for power -- civil wars,
revolutions -- organized gangs can get very, very bad like you have
in Juarez today," Roth said. "It's very rare to see the rates like
this in a developed country. It's very sad."

Roth is a professor of history and sociology at Ohio State University
who created a historical database examining U.S. homicide rates from
different time periods and places. He is author of the book "American
Homicide."

Roth said the worst period for homicides in the U.S. was during
Reconstruction in the Red River Valley of Louisiana, which had a
murder rate of at least 196 per 100,000 per year from 1866 to 1876.

"You had the former Confederates. And the Ku Klux Klan were just in
rebellion against the government," Roth explained. "You didn't have a
central government."

Mexico and Juarez government officials and El Paso economic
development leaders have repeatedly said that authority has not
broken down in Juarez despite the bloodshed. Government services
continue. Businesses still do business. And the maquiladora industry
is humming along.

A report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime stated that
a lot of attention has been placed on Juarez but that high homicides
rates can be found along cocaine smuggling corridors in the Americas.

"Less attention has been placed on Central America, where the murder
rates are four to five times higher than in Mexico, and where both
the economy and the state are far less robust and resilient," the
report stated.

"While the drug violence has been intense in places like Ciudad
Juarez, Mexico's overall murder rate remains moderate compared to
many other countries afflicted by the drug trade."

The report, "Crime and Instability. Case studies of transnational
threats," was issued in February. It also stated that much of the
violence in Central America is not drug related but due to a legacy
of social division and decades of civil war.

The Mexican government has deployed thousands of federal police and
soldiers to Juarez but the violence has continued and most murders
remain unsolved.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon this year also launched the program
"Todos Somos Juarez" (We are all Juarez) intended to rebuild the
city's social fabric with education, sports, jobs and culture and
other proposals.

Roth said law enforcement can only do so much to stem murders.

Roth advocates an uncommon theory, arguing that high murder rates are
not linked to poverty, lack of police or gun control, but rather to
trust in government and a sense of belonging.

"People settle their own scores when the state breaks down," Roth
said in a telephone interview from Ohio. "They think there will be no
consequences. So, they act like there will be no consequences."

Roth points to the Great Depression as an example of when homicides
dropped while poverty increased because there was a sense of we are
all in it together. In communities were there is no sense of kinship,
the smallest slight can escalate to violence, he said.

Roth argued there is no correlation, beyond a certain point, between
police staffing numbers and murders.

"Strong policing can deter auto theft rings, burglaries and gang
violence but it has a hard time with murder because it is so
spontaneous. It is so personal and the emotions involved so strong," he said.

But if trust is the answer, it can be a difficult answer to find in a
city like Juarez, infected for decades by corruption.

A public opinion poll last November by the Autonomous University of
Ciudad Juarez showed that 97 percent of the population felt unsafe
and that 52 percent disapproved of and distrusted all Mexican authorities.

"Ultimately what builds a sense of patriotism and fellowship is
feeling a sense of connectiveness with your neighbor (and) that your
government does care for your concerns and builds stability," Roth said.

"It's easier to revive an economy than build trust. (Government
action) has to be seen as effective. It's deeper (than just the
government). It has to come from the people itself."