IMMIGRATION MAY PUSH ASIDE DRUG WAR IN MEXICAN PRESIDENT CALDERON'S
VISIT TO WHITE HOUSE

EL PASO -- Immigration issues will dominate a two-day visit by Mexican
President Felipe Calderon to Washington, D.C., while the war on drugs
may take a back seat.

Tonight, President Barack Obama will host Calderon and his wife,
Margarita Zavala, in a state dinner at the White House, the first time
for a Mexican head of state in nine years.

Calderon is expected to address Congress on Thursday and will probably
speak in opposition to a tough immigration law adopted in Arizona in
April. The law gives law enforcement officials the legal authority to
ask the immigration status of a person if the officer has a
"reasonable suspicion" the person is in the country illegally.

Originally, when the White House announced the visit of Calderon, he
and Obama were to discuss cooperation on border security and the
battle against organized crime. It became a top topic in mid-March
when an employee of the U.S. Consulate in Juarez and her husband, both
U.S. citizens, were killed after a children's birthday party in Juarez.

Attention on the border shifted in April when Arizona passed the tough
immigration law, which was called one the harshest aimed at
controlling illegal immigration.

Critics say it will lead to racial profiling and discrimination by
local and state law enforcement. Supporters say that it gives the
state the power to enforce immigration laws.

The law angered Mexican leaders, and it prompted a warning by the
country's foreign affairs ministry saying there was an adverse
political environment for immigrant communities and visitors in Arizona.

Calderon is not afraid to condemn the controversial law. He told
Reuters in a recent interview that he planned to protest it in
Congress. Obama administration officials also condemned the law. And
Obama has promised to seek an overhaul of the immigration system this
year.

"Asking for a strong push for immigration is a risky move for
Calderon," said David Shirk, director of the Trans-Border Institute at
the University of San Diego. "Calderon will have to think very
carefully on what he asks for and how he is asking."

Shirk, also a Mexico expert at the Woodrow Wilson Center in
Washington, D.C., said that demanding changes in laws in a foreign
country may discredit his efforts such as his fight against drug cartels.

Before Calderon, previous President Vicente Fox was invited to a state
dinner in 2001 with immigration reform in mind. The promises of that
visit were left behind, however, after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks,
which occurred days after the dinner.

Calderon and Obama have met more than a half-dozen times to discuss
border security. The topic will also be covered in the two-day visit.

Shirk said it is evident how the level of cooperation between the
United States and Mexico has improved.

Extraditions, border law enforcement personnel and infrastructure all
have improved.

"This administration continues to deepen our binational cooperation
with the government of Mexico and support efforts to ensure our mutual
security," said Matt Chandler, spokesman for the Department of
Homeland Security.

Former Arizona governor Janet Napolitano is the Department of Homeland
Security secretary. Since Obama appointed her in January 2009, Mexico
and the United States have signed several agreements to share
intelligence, train Mexican federal police and begin screening
southbound shipments at ports for weapons, drugs and bulk cash.

The Merida Initiative was a $1.3 billion aid package established by
the United States in 2008 when George W. Bush was president. The fund
was to help Mexico reform its justice system and buy aircraft and
technology to fight organized crime. A U.S. Government Accountability
Office report released in December 2009 concluded that only 2 percent,
or $26.27 million, of Merida funds had been spent.

An area of contention is the question of whether Mexico's federal
government can be trusted.

A national newspaper in Mexico, Reforma, exposed internal government
documents that were found in a Sinaloa drug cartel member's vehicle.
These had information about deployment of police officers and their
contact information. U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration intelligence
material were also found there, the newspaper said.

Some government critics have said Calderon has gone easy on the
Sinaloa drug cartel led by Joaquin "Chapo" Guzman. His
drug-trafficking organization ships the most drug loads to the United
States, FBI officials said. They are also the members that are mostly
at-large.

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, said he thinks Calderon should address the
threats his war on drugs and cartels present to the United States.

"He would like president Calderon to speak honestly about the security
situation in Mexico and its implications for Texas and the U.S.," said
Jessica Sandlin, a Cornyn spokeswoman.

Cornyn has sought more federal money for local and state law
enforcement in Texas to prevent a violence spillover in border cities.
He announced it in a visit to El Paso in April.

Shirk said Calderon will again seek Obama's continuing support of
Mexico's efforts to crack down on drug cartels.

"Calderon needs Obama to say that the U.S. validates (the fight),"
Shirk said. "The Obama administration is willing to give it to them."

More than 5,500 people have been killed in Juarez since Calderon
became president in 2006. Juarez has become the most violent city in
Mexico. This year, more than 950 people have been murdered.

The escalating violence prompted three visits by Calderon to Juarez
this year. He promised social investment and committees were formed to
oversee social reconstruction in the border city.

Dr. Miguel Garcia Navarro, a Juarez general practitioner who
participates on the public safety committee, said the violence will
not end until the government roots out corruption of its federal
police, changes its criminal laws and begins pursuing more cases of
asset forfeiture.

"We wish that laws were made based on reality, and not the other way
around," he said.

Garcia Navarro said Mexico needs to change its strategy, just as Obama
has decided on a policy to decrease levels of drug
consumption.

Shirk said the visit "is remarkable for the fact that it is so
underwhelming," because there are no groundbreaking decisions tied to
the visit.

Yet it is still an important meeting because of the economic interests
of the two countries, he said.

"It is indeed the country that affects us more than any other country.
For better or worse, we have two countries that are inextricably
linked to each other," Shirk said.

Preconceptions of Mexico have affected labor programs that could
benefit both countries, Shirk said.

Mexico is America's third-largest trading partner. In 2008, $367
billion worth of imports and exports crossed the U.S.-Mexico border.

Since the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement in
1994, U.S. exports to Mexico have more than doubled, to $160 billion
in 2008 alone. In 2007, the U.S. maintained an $8.2 billion services
trade surplus with Mexico.

Mexico is the No. 1 market for U.S. exports of rice, beef, soybean
meal and dry beans, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
In 2008, the U.S. exported $353 million in rice to Mexico.

Calderon promised to address during his visit the trade and labor
programs between Mexico and the United States.