NO END IN SIGHT IN MEXICO CARTEL WAR

Turf Battle in Juarez May Take Years to Play Out, Authorities Say

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico - Even after thousands of drug-related slayings
in this border city, U.S. and Mexican law enforcement officials say
that a war between rival cartels could continue for years -
contradicting reports that one group had gained control over a key
smuggling route.

"Our intelligence does not indicate that the Sinaloa cartel has taken
over the Juarez corridor. However, they are making serious attempts
to do so," said Joseph M. Arabit, special agent in charge of the Drug
Enforcement Administration office in El Paso. "The upper hand changes
from week to week because this is an ongoing struggle."

His assessment contradicts recent reports suggesting that Joaqumn "El
Chapo" Guzman, head of the Sinaloa cartel, had won a two-year battle
over the rival Juarez cartel, resulting in the deaths of nearly 6,000
people in this battered city across the border from El Paso.

President Barack Obama will host Mexican President Felipe Calderon a
state dinner Wednesday at the White House, and Mexico's drug violence
will probably be high on the agenda, along with immigration reform,
experts say.

At a recent hearing in Washington, Anthony Placido, assistant
administrator for intelligence at the DEA, warned that the pace of
killings would continue and could get worse. "We must also manage
expectations, as we anticipate that the gruesome violence in Mexico
may get worse before it gets better," he said.

Officials have provided a range of estimates for how long the
violence might continue at current levels. "Two years is optimistic,"
one senior U.S. law enforcement official said. "We're making
significant headway, but this will take time - years."

The bleak assessment is due in part to the personal nature of the
drug war, especially in Ciudad Juarez. Guzman, of the Sinaloa cartel,
is locked in what experts say is a personal feud with a former ally,
Vicente Carrillo Fuentes of the Juarez cartel. Authorities say that
the feud between Carrillo Fuentes and Guzman dates to at least 2004,
when Guzman allegedly ordered the killing of Rodolfo Carrillo
Fuentes, Vicente's brother. Guzman's son, Edgar, was killed in May
2008, allegedly on the orders of Carrillo Fuentes.

Before their falling-out, the two leaders and their organizations
were allied as part of a larger organization known as the Federation,
in which different criminal organizations controlled different
regions of the country.

Killing Frenzy

Today, despite the reported urging of former members of the
Federation to mend fences for the sake of business, their feud is
generating a killing frenzy, U.S.-Mexican law enforcement officials say.

Southeast of Juarez, in the area known as the valley of Juarez, the
Sinaloa cartel recently used threats and intimidation to run nearly
everyone out of the tiny towns near the border. Many fled across the
Rio Grande to farming communities in Texas. Others left for Ciudad
Juarez. The incident led some experts to declare the region "Chapo's land."

But within days, Carrillo Fuentes' gunmen, known as La Linea,
retaliated and fought to reclaim the turf.

This week, killings haven't been limited just to the valley or to
Juarez, but have also resumed in northeastern Juarez, an area that
many believed was also in the firm control of the Sinaloa cartel. At
least seven people, mostly teens, have been killed in the past week.

"Both regions remain up for grabs, just like Ciudad Juarez," said a
senior intelligence official, adding that a situation that developed
over decades will not be resolved in a year or even two.

"The VCF organization has been in Juarez for generations," the senior
U.S. intelligence official said, referring to the Vicente Carrillo
Fuentes group. "They're entrenched, hard-core and brutal. They're not
going anywhere so fast."

Lucinda Vargas, an economist and community organizer, said any claim
of victory must be backed up by "someone's head on display at the
main plaza in Juarez for all to see and believe. I don't mean to
sound crass, but that's the reality in Juarez today."

Gunfire Every Day

Daily gunbattles are carried out mostly by teens motivated not just
by orders from drug bosses, but also by revenge and greed.

The killers make anywhere from $200 per hit or per week, authorities
say. And in a time of economic hardship, with unemployment hovering
at 20 percent, jobs for hit men are plentiful. For the year, more
than 950 people have been slain in Juarez, about 10 percent of them
noncombatants, according to government figures. More than 30 of the
dead were police officers.

Mexican officials have estimated that as many as 15,000 gang members
- - mainly from two groups, Artistas Asesinos and Barrio Aztecas -
operate in Juarez, a city of 1.3 million people, as affiliates of the cartels.

Differing Outlooks

Some U.S. authorities - and even one longtime critic of Caldersn's
hard-line strategy - expressed confidence that the arrival of more
than 2,000 newly U.S.-trained federal agents will improve security in Juarez.

"I'm beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel," said human
rights activist Gustavo de la Rosa, who has led criticism of abuses
by the military. "It's not going to happen tomorrow or the day after,
but things are improving because the federal government is attacking
organized crime, but just as importantly taking steps to improve
security for residents. These are two different, separate battles
that are being waged simultaneously."

Others voice skepticism.

"There's no end in sight, because in spite of the military and feds
being brought to Juarez, there has been no significant reform," said
Howard Campbell, an anthropologist and drug expert at the University
of Texas at El Paso. "Mexican law enforcement, at least in Juarez, is
still basically a protection and extortion racket. The citizens and
the drug business are the cash cows."