POLITICAL OBSERVERS BELIEVE MARIJUANA INITIATIVE PROBABLY WON'T PASS
IN NOVEMBER

Local political pundits say the chances of success for a ballot
initiative to legalize the possession and sale of marijuana appear to
be - at best - hard to gauge.

Few gave the medical marijuana initiative much chance, says one
observer, but it passed. Now, few give this initiative much chance,
but California voters can be surprising.

There are still seven months of campaigning ahead, and experts say
they find it difficult to believe the initiative could succeed in
November's midterm elections.

"I think most of the analysis on the medical marijuana initiative was
it would not stand a chance, (but) this is going to be very hard to
predict," said Doug Johnson, a research fellow with Claremont McKenna
College's Rose Institute of State and Local Government.

Johnson said state voters' approval of Proposition 215 legalizing
medical marijuana in 1996 "definitely surprised me. Few people gave it
much of a chance. It surprised a lot of people. And I think as a
result of that past surprise, a lot more attention is being paid to
this."

Johnson said he expects "there will be lots of international and
national attention as the initiative gets close (to November)."

Jack Pitney, political science professor at Claremont McKenna College,
said some polls show the marijuana initiative has some support.

"But I wouldn't bet the rent that it's going to pass," Pitney said.
"Law enforcement will come out against it very strongly. We'll see a
lot of messages tying marijuana use to the use of harder drugs. And
even though ... it limits it to people over 21, the opponents will
point out it will be very easy for younger people to get their hands
on it."

In fact, Pitney thinks the anti-pot vote will be substantial. He cited
the fact that in midterm elections, the majority of voters are older
and more conservative.

"A lot of gray hairs are going to be entering the voting booth in
November," he said.

For Johnson, the vote on the marijuana measure will have an intriguing
aspect with state Attorney General Jerry Brown on the ballot running
for governor.

Brown, when he was governor, signed legislation lessening the penalty
for marijuana possession and has said he opposes this year's measure.

"It will be very interesting to have this on the ballot with Jerry
Brown," Johnson said.

"And, actually, that may add support to Brown as marijuana supporters
come out. But he will be put in a bad spot. History may lead him to
take one position, but as the state attorney general, I'm interested
to see what he does."

Pitney said he didn't think that baby boomers, who grew up with the
1960s music festival Woodstock and its celebration of drug culture,
would vote for the initiative.

"I'm one of them," Pitney said. "However, I think a lot of us have
come to have very different attitudes having families. There's nothing
like having children to turn you into an anti-drug crusader."