TEXAS BORDER TOWNS FEAR VIOLENT SPILLOVER FROM MEXICO

EL PASO - Texas law enforcement officials are bracing for a bloody
weekend along the border, advising farmers to arm themselves as signs
across northern Mexico point to a new escalation of violence after
coordinated drug cartel attacks against the military this week.

In the northern Mexican states of Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas, both
bordering Texas, drug cartel gunmen used trucks and buses Tuesday to
block approaches to military bases in Reynosa and Matamoros,
apparently in an attempt to trap the troops inside. In all, gunmen
attacked military targets in a half-dozen towns in the two states.

At least 18 suspected attackers were reported killed. One soldier was
reported wounded.

The unease across Mexico has analysts and political leaders
questioning the Mexican government's long-term strategy, with at least
one leading expert saying the approach is flawed because some
"government elements" unwittingly favor one cartel over the other.

The result has been a "feeding frenzy" of violence, said Phil
Williams, an expert on global security who spoke this week at Tarleton
State University in Stephenville, southwest of Fort Worth.

Across West Texas, worries abound of possible Easter weekend massacres
in tiny Mexican communities butting up against Texas. In Hudspeth
County, near El Paso, Chief Deputy Mike Doyal said Thursday that his
"deputies are on high alert, 24-7," for any sign of "a spillover of
violence."

The alerts were prompted by street banners and online messages from
alleged members of the Sinaloa cartel warning residents of Mexican
towns to leave by Easter Sunday or face death and burned homes.

The Sinaloa cartel is battling members of the Juarez cartel for
control of distribution routes into Texas. Cartels are also known to
use the banners and online messages to spread fear and intimidate
residents without following through on threats.

In recent days, according to residents with relatives on the Mexican
side of the border, at least six homes and businesses have been
burned. Hundreds of residents reportedly have either fled to nearby
Ciudad Juarez or sought refuge with relatives in Texas.

Doyal said tensions over the past few weeks have reached a "boiling
point."

"The word on the street is, 'You have to leave or pay with your
blood,' " Doyal said. "This is supposed to be the weekend of weekends.
So, yeah, we're on high alert."

He said he has four of his 15 deputies on duty in Fort Hancock, up
from the lone deputy who normally patrols the community.

Earlier in the week, the Sheriff's Department held a community meeting
in which authorities advised residents, "If you're out on the fields,
arm yourself," Doyal said.

Border Patrol spokesman Doug Mosier issued a statement Thursday
evening urging calm "amid unsubstantiated reports of violence, threats
and intimidation."

Mosier said the agency has increased the number of agents on duty and
is "determined to prevent violence from spilling over into the U.S."

Worries about IEDs

In Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, across the border from South Texas, the
Gulf cartel is battling its former enforcers, the paramilitary group
known as the Zetas.

In an alarming new development, the criminal groups are experimenting
with improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, said Alex Posey, a Mexico
security analyst with Austin-based Stratfor.

"The most worrisome thing about an IED is that it's not as targeted as
a rifle round," Posey said. "There is a greater risk of collateral
damage when IEDs are involved."

At a news conference in Mexico City, Gen. Edgar Luis Villegas called
the attacks in northern Mexico "desperate acts" in reaction to "the
advances made by federal authorities." Some residents and experts
scoffed at the statement, saying that the situation is spiraling out
of control.

A businessman in Reynosa, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear
of retaliation by criminal groups, said by telephone that the military
"reacts like spectators at a bullring."

"They sit around and watch while hit men kill each other, and then
they come in and clean up the mess, even the blood of innocent people
who just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time," the
businessman said.

The U.S. Consulate office in Monterrey issued a warning Thursday for
Easter weekend: "Americans planning to travel by road from Monterrey
to Texas should be especially vigilant and carefully monitor local
news reports."

In Chihuahua state, across from El Paso, 4,500 federal agents were
expected Thursday night to take over for the military, which will
remain active but in a support role.

Favoritism Allegations

Meanwhile, the accusation that the government was favoring some
cartels - particularly the Sinaloa cartel and its leader, Joaquin
"Chapo" Guzman - gained new credence from security experts.

"The best example of this favoritism is that Chapo Guzman is the most
wanted man in Mexico and yet he's still free," said drug trafficking
expert Bruce Bagley of the University of Miami, also speaking Monday
at Tarleton State. He said the leader of the Sinaloa cartel has better
intelligence than the government. "There's no other rational
explanation."

"There's tacit favoritism, it seems, for the Sinaloa cartel," added
Williams, the expert on global security from the University of Pittsburgh.

The government counters that it has detained 72,000 criminals since
President Felipe Calderon took office in December 2006 and that all
the major groups were well represented according to their relative
strength: 27 percent of detainees belong to the Gulf-Zetas
organization, 24 percent to the Sinaloa cartel, 17 percent to the
Juarez cartel, 14 percent to the Beltran Leyva organization, 13
percent to the Arellano Felix cartel, and 5 percent to other groups,
including La Familia and the Valencia-Milenio cartel.

"This government has attacked indiscriminately all the criminal groups
in Mexico," Calderon said last month.

His strategy of sending the military after the cartels has led to
steadily rising violence and almost 19,000 deaths in a little more
than three years.

The biggest challenge with the Calderon strategy, said Jorge Chabat, a
security expert in Mexico City, is "growing fatigue" among residents.

"I don't know that residents will tolerate this kind of violence much
longer."