MEXICAN DRUG WARS

A Deadly Dilemma

THE level of extreme violence in northern Mexico was off the charts
long before Ottawa issued a travel advisory, after daylight
executions of two U.S. consular officials on the streets of Ciudad
Juarez a week ago, warning Canadians to avoid trips to that troubled
region.

Ever since Mexican President Felipe Calderon's controversial war on
the powerful Mexican drug cartels that ship their illicit goods
across the U.S. border began in 2006, as many as 18,000 people are
estimated to have died in the resulting bloodbath. Many were cartel
foot soldiers involved in turf battles, but others were police
officers, journalists and innocent civilians caught in crossfires or
killed as a result of mistaken identity.

Despite the headlines, however, travel agency officials say they have
not noticed any decline in the number of Canadians heading to
established tourist centres in Mexico. That's likely because most
tourist meccas, like Cancun, are indeed far from the Mexico-U.S.
border and mostly free of violence, though even Acapulco has had
spates of drug-related killings over the years.

The bigger question remains: Just how effective has Mr. Calderon's
war on the drug cartels been?

Supporters say, with justification, that the old situation - in which
the government allowed the cartels to do business - amplified
corruption and undermined the legitimacy of the state. Under Mr.
Calderon's assault, carried out by some 45,000 troops and police
officers, the authorities have captured or killed some of the top
crime figures running the cartels.

To back away, say proponents, would also mean more drugs flowing
north, to Canada as well as the U.S., ruining more lives.

The cost in human lives due to the crackdown, however, has reportedly
shaken Mexicans' support for Mr. Calderon's once-popular drug war.

There is also already evidence that the Mexican cartels have merely
moved some of their operations south to countries in Central America,
corrupting public officials there with part of the proceeds of up to
perhaps $48 billion US a year in illicit profits.

The cartels themselves only rose to prominence after successful U.S.
efforts to shut down the routes of Colombian drug traffickers into
Florida pushed the South Americans to turn to Mexico.

Demand for illicit drugs in the U.S., the world's biggest market for
illegal narcotics, is what drives the black market, of course.

Many critics have called for more emphasis on harm-reduction
programs, through efforts like clean needle exchange clinics, which
studies say lead to more drug addicts seeking treatment.

Meanwhile, while harder drugs such as cocaine and heroin continue to
rightly be seen as scourges, a growing number of U.S. states have
legalized medical marijuana and decriminalized simple possession of
recreational pot. California is debating being the first to legalize
recreational use.

Finding the right balance between prohibition, interdiction, harm
reduction and, in some cases, limited decriminalization, however,
remains a daunting challenge.