DRUG WAR CLASHES BETWEEN GULF CARTEL, ZETAS MAY ESCALATE, COULD AFFECT
NORTH TEXAS

NUEVO LAREDO - Longstanding tensions between the Zetas paramilitary
group and their old employers, the Gulf drug cartel, have exploded
into a full-blown war, worrying U.S. and Mexican law enforcement
officials that a likely protracted battle will further threaten this
stretch of the Texas-Mexico border. Parts of it are already under
heightened security.

The resumption in violence shatters a three-year uneasy truce in this
region and represents a potential menace to places such as North Texas
where the Zetas and a rival drug trafficking organization known as La
Familia are entrenched, according to a U.S. intelligence official, who
spoke on condition of anonymity.

"This is where the drug war began [Tamaulipas in 2003] and hopefully
where it will end," said Eduardo "Buho" Valle, an analyst and former
adviser to Mexico's attorney general's office. "We're looking at a war
that will change the drug cartels' national structure. That's why
everyone is on edge, nervous."

In Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas state Gov. Eugenio Hernandez Flores
issued a message Sunday through the Internet, cautioning residents,
"Don't pay attention to rumors."

Hernandez also asked residents to check the state's official Web site
for updates.

At least five attacks took place in Nuevo Laredo and the state of
Nuevo Leon over the weekend, led apparently by members of the Gulf
cartel who allegedly drove from the Matamoros-Reynosa area in search
of members of the Zetas, according to the U.S. intelligence official.
Their convoy included 20 SUVs with the logo, "CdG (Gulf Cartel)" and
"X" plastered on the backs of the vehicles to distinguish themselves
from the Zetas. The vehicles carried an undetermined number of heavily
armed men.

Using grenade launchers, they struck police installations, according
to accounts that couldn't be independently confirmed by authorities in
Mexico City.

But Nuevo Laredo Mayor Ramon Garza said he, too, had heard the stories
of convoys and attacks, but to date "I can only confirm that there was
one attack on Feb. 19, and two pipe explosions on Friday."

He also noted that the rumor that he was kidnapped and killed was
false. "As you can see, I'm still alive and well," he said Sunday evening.

The number of deaths or injuries in the attacks is not known, though
some media reports estimate that, in the last week or so, at least 25
people have been killed in Tamaulipas. At least five more were killed
in the bordering state of Nuevo Leon.

Precise figures are difficult to obtain. Mexican officials are
reluctant to speak publicly, and the local media, which openly
practices self-censorship, has been sternly warned by the feared Zetas
to maintain a media blackout or face deadly consequences.

Skirmishes between the Zetas and the Gulf cartel have been brewing for
years, but war was declared in late January after Sergio Pena, a top
lieutenant to Miguel Trevino Morales, was gunned down in Matamoros by
an alleged member of the Gulf cartel. Moreover, the sentencing last
week in Houston of Osiel Cardenas to 25 years in U.S. federal prison
"opened the flood gates," said Valle.

"The rather light sentence suggest that Cardenas sang, gave names,
details and that's only contributed to the mayhem," Valle added.

Ciudad Juarez, some 600 miles up the border from Nuevo Laredo, remains
by far the most violent city in Mexico, accounting for more than 450
killings this year, and more than 4,650 since January 2008.
Tamauilipas state, however, is a powder keg. This is home to the Gulf
cartel and the Zetas. Some of the members were trained as elite
special forces operatives by the U.S. and other foreign governments
before Cardenas lured them into deserting and forming their mercenary
army.

In the last few weeks, according to U.S. intelligence, the Gulf
cartel, with the backing of La Familia from Michoacan and the Sinaloa
cartel led by Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, the most wanted criminal in
Mexico, decided to "wipe out the Zetas, get them out of the way," Valle said.

"The glue was Osiel, the 25-year sentence was the trigger he is not
coming back," said Alberto Islas, an analyst on organized crime in
Mexico City.

Last week, Mexican President Felipe Calderon angrily denied
allegations that he was favoring the Sinaloa cartel in Mexico's war
against the cartels. Since he took office in 2006, Calderon has sent
45,000 troops across the country to regain control of communities
under the influence of drug traffickers, often working with Mexican
authorities.

In the middle is Laredo-born and raised Edgar Valdez, otherwise known
as "La Barbie" - perhaps the most powerful U.S citizen-turned Mexican
cartel kingpin, who's also in charge of a group of hitmen. The U.S.
intelligence official believes Valdez is working for the Sinaloa
cartel and now represents the possible link with the Gulf cartel.

On Saturday, Mexican authorities shut down two of the four
international bridges crossing the Rio Grande into Texas, momentarily
interrupting traffic from Matamoros to Brownsville following bomb
threats. They were reopened about an hour later. The U.S. Consulate in
Matamoros ordered its offices in Reynosa closed last Friday until
further notice. The consulate in Monterrey advised Americans to avoid
travel to the border cities of Reynosa and Nuevo Laredo, citing
frequent gun battles.

In Nuevo Laredo, streets appeared tense on Sunday. As the sun set,
workers and visitors hurried home or across the border to Laredo.
Merchants were somber, worried about the latest outbreaks of violence
and the impact it will probably have on their already struggling
businesses. Some tried to be positive, even as talk spread of more
gunfights in the outskirts of the city.

"For the most part everything is fine, normal," said Ricardo
Dominguez, 26, an unarmed policeman assigned to the downtown area to
assist tourists, adding, "But there are exceptions" to the rule.

Regarding any gun battles on Sunday, "We haven't seen any," Dominguez
said.

The vagueness left residents along the border scrambling for
information via the Internet. In one e-mail to the media, Connie
Swain, a member of the Texas Apostolic Prayer Network, pleaded for
coverage: "Terrible things.... I'm not seeing anything locally or
nationally. Apparently this has erupted only within the last couple of
days. Can you guys confirm some of this stuff???"