NO QUICK FIX SEEN FOR DRUG BATTLE IN JUAREZ

The Juarez of old is gone.

In its place is a paralyzing and vicious 2-year-old drug war that has
the 1.5 million residents in the manufacturing border town living in
fear, even as city leaders pledge to never give in to the powerful
cartels that are using the city's streets as a killing ground.

The axis of the problem remains the same: The Sinaloa Cartel and its
leader Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman are trying to wrest control of the
Juarez drug-trafficking corridor from the Juarez Cartel and its
leader, Vicente Carrillo Fuentes.

Neither side has been able to defeat the other after two years. As a
result, Juarez has gone from a popular tourist attraction to the
murder capital of North America. Juarez had more than 1,600 murders
in 2008 and 2,580 this year.

That translates to 165 deaths in Juarez per 100,000 residents. In
Baghdad, there are 48 deaths per 100,000 residents.

One expert on Mexico said the violence may not ease for some time, as
both cartels are entrenched and neither is backing down.

"Inasmuch as neither organization can completely exterminate the
other, the carnage is likely to continue for a while," said Tony
Payan, a University of Texas at El Paso professor, whose expertise is
Mexico. "Nobody really knows how long, but it is likely to continue."

Two years ago, when the cartels declared war, the grand prize was the
Juarez Plaza. Each saw control of the plaza as an exclusive right to
ship drugs into the United States through El Paso and Juarez.

For ordinary residents in Juarez, those trying to make an honest
living and have safe neighborhoods, the stakes are greater.

The cartels are fighting for heroin sales on Juarez's streets, and
competing to shake down businesses through extortion. No one knows
exactly how lucrative these new endeavors are, but U.S. officials
estimate that Juarez has tens of thousands of drug addicts. The
extortion racket, which includes kidnappings, has caused more than
6,000 businesses in Juarez to shut down, including most of the
tourist shops in the mercados.

Several restaurants on Avenida Juarez have also closed. The town, at
night, is basically empty, as neither tourists nor natives dine out.
The street mariachis, who used to roam the sidewalks, are gone.

"Right now, the big problem we have are extortions," Juarez Mayor
Jose Reyes Ferriz said. "We're getting a task force ready to work on
that. I'm sure we will be able to lower that crime rate, as well as
the homicide rate."

Genesis of a Drug War

Juarez's troubles publicly surfaced in January 2008, but the war was
actually triggered 13 months earlier when Mexican President Felipe
Calderon took office. Calderon did not like the direction his country
was headed. The cartels, he has said, were a national security problem.

He ordered the Mexican army to disband them. Calderon's targets
included the Juarez cartel, which had controlled Juarez's drug trade
since the early 1990s.

As the Juarez cartel faced off with the military, Guzman and the
Sinaloa cartel tried to move in. Guzman recruited two Mexican street
gangs -- the Artistic Assassins and the Mexicles -- to try to bury
the Juarez cartel.

The Sinaloa cartel began attacking Juarez cartel members in 2008.
Various U.S. and Juarez officials expected the street violence to end
within three months. Instead, it raged on as police officers and
cartel members were executed and tortured. Innocent people on
occasion also have been killed in the gangland fighting.

This year, when it became apparent the violence would not end,
Calderon sent 7,000 soldiers and 2,000 federal police officers to
Juarez. The military took over the municipal police department, as
well as most of the day-to-day law enforcement operations.

The killings stopped for about three weeks in March, a lull before an
explosion. The violence resumed in April, this time in greater
numbers. Kidnappings, bank robberies, carjackings and extortions escalated.

Many saw this as a failing of government.

"We thought they had a solid strategy and some intelligence on the
cartels. What we found out is that they didn't have a strategic
plan," said Juarez businessman Gabriel Cantu.

In November this year, Cantu and several hundred other business
owners formed the group, "Juarenses por la Paz," or Juarez residents
want peace. It hopes to place billboards in El Paso and Juarez that
say, "Ya Basta" (Enough).

"We are tired of the violence," Cantu said. "The situation is getting
worse. And if it isn't stopped, it will affect El Paso. It has
affected El Paso, but it will be worse."

El Paso's Interests

So far, U.S. law enforcement officials say, the cartel violence has
spilled into El Paso only twice.

In May, Jose Daniel Gonzalez-Galeana of El Paso was shot dead at his
home on the East Side. Investigators say his execution was ordered by
one of the cartels because Gonzalez-Galeana was an informant for the
U.S. government. Three men, including a Fort Bliss soldier, were arrested.

Then in September, attackers kidnapped Horizon City resident Sergio
Saucedo from his home while his wife and a busload of school children
looked on. His mutilated body was a found week later in Juarez. No
arrests have been made in that case.

Joseph Arabit, special agent in charge of the Drug Enforcement
Administration's staff in El Paso, said law enforcement agencies in
El Paso continuously monitor crime in West Texas to see whether it is
related to the cartel violence.

"There are some local drug distribution networks in El Paso, but El
Paso is mostly a transportation point," Arabit said. "We are
constantly investigating and breaking up the distribution networks on
this side, but very little spillover has occurred."

He attributes that to the Mexican military's proactive presence in
Juarez, which is hurting the cartels.

"What we are seeing is that loads being smuggled are getting smaller
and smaller. Seizures are down 30 percent, and the purity of the
cocaine is going down," Arabit said.

Five years ago, drug shipments being caught at the ports of entry in
El Paso routinely weighed 300 or 400 kilos. Now the shipments being
detected weigh 50 to 75 kilos.

Reyes Ferriz and the Mexican army insist that they are slowly turning
things around in Juarez. In the past year, more than 5,000 people
have been arrested and charged with drug trafficking, weapons
violations or both.

The army has arrested several gang members, who have confessed to
killing more than 1,000 people, Mexican officials said. The fact that
the war rages on is testimony to the number of foot soldiers, or
street-level gang members, who are involved.

"There is a human toll going on over there that we as human beings
should be concerned about," said David Cuthbertson, FBI special agent
in charge of the El Paso division.

Military Presence Continues

In September, during his third state of the union address, Calderon
reiterated that the fight against the cartels would continue and that
the Mexican army would lead the way.

Calderon, who is halfway through his six-year term, said the military
must remain in charge until all of the local and state police
departments are void of corruption.

UTEP's Payan said Calderon strategy is to keep hitting the cartels.

"He is the first truly conservative president of Mexico in a long
time, and thus his orientation is one of law and order," Payan said.
"He will continue his struggle. He believes that the price is worth paying."

Calderon has shown that he is willing to take on any cartel or
criminal organization. Just this month, the Mexican navy got into a
firefight with one of Mexico's most powerful drug lords, Arturo
Beltran Leyva, and killed him.

His death might have implications for Juarez, Payan said. Beltran
Leyva was a major enemy of Guzman.

Now that Beltran Leyva is gone, there is a chance that Guzman will
focus on Carrillo Fuentes and the Juarez cartel.

"If that is the case, Ciudad Juarez can get worse before it gets
better," Payan said. "It is entirely possible, however, that he will
simply take over the Sinaloa-Sonora-Arizona corridor and that he
leaves the Carrillo Fuentes organization alone to operate in Ciudad
Juarez through some sort of truce. And that may mean a reduction in
violence in Ciudad Juarez."