THE PHONY THREAT OF LIBERAL DRUG LAWS

Recently, Mexican President Vicente Fox vetoed a bill passed by the
Mexican Congress that would have removed criminal penalties for people
caught with small amounts of marijuana or other drugs. This came after
the Bush administration vigorously complained, predicting it would
encourage Americans to pour southward as "drug tourists."

But that option is off the table for the moment. So Americans who want
to get high without fear of going to jail will have to go some other
place where cannabis can be consumed with impunity. Such as Nebraska.

As it happens, no fewer than 11 states on this side of the border have
made the decision not to bother filling their prisons with
recreational potheads. Among them are not only such states as
California and Oregon, which you might expect, but states such as
North Carolina and Mississippi, which you might not. About 100 million
Americans live in places where pot has been decriminalized.

Maybe there are planeloads of college kids who travel to Maine or
Minnesota to spend each spring break hitting a bong, but if so, it's a
well-kept secret. In fact, the most noticeable thing about states that
have decriminalized marijuana is that they're not - noticeable, that
is.

Looking at these places, "you can't tell the difference from how many
people use marijuana," says University of Maryland, College Park
economist Peter Reuter. A 1999 report commissioned by the National
Academy of Sciences found "there is little evidence that
decriminalization of marijuana use necessarily leads to a substantial
increase in marijuana use."

Not everyone is in complete agreement. Rosalie Pacula, co-director of
the Drug Policy Research Center at the RAND Corp., says her research
indicates decriminalization does tend to lead to higher use. But by
her measures, the effect is small.

Laws are only a modest factor in the decision to use drugs or not -
just as they are only a modest factor in the decision to smoke
cigarettes or not. Most people don't even know if they live in a
decriminalized state.

The evidence from abroad is not terribly scary either. The Netherlands
has gone beyond decriminalizing pot: For years, the government has
allowed the sale of small amounts of pot through special cafes known
as "coffee shops." Yet easy accessibility hasn't made the drug any
more tempting to the average person. Dutch adults and teens both are
less likely to use cannabis than Americans.

So it's hard to see why the United States should mind if Mexico
decides to go easy on potheads. A good deal of evidence indicates that
the law wouldn't make much difference in the behavior of either
Mexicans or Americans.

There are some clear advantages, though. By freeing cops from focusing
on recreational marijuana users, governments can reallocate more
resources to serious crime.

Of course, the Mexican measure would have decriminalized possession of
other drugs too, including heroin, cocaine and amphetamines -
something no American state has done. Wouldn't something so drastic
produce an explosion of hard drug use?

Actually, no. Italy, Spain and Portugal have decriminalized personal
use of all drugs, not just cannabis. But liberal laws don't
necessarily lead to liberal behavior. Spain has one of the highest
cocaine use rates in Europe - but lower than the rate in Britain,
which has a much stricter approach. Italy, by contrast, is about
average for the continent, but Portugal is well below average. On
heroin, all three are on the high side, though not dramatically so.

That fact, however, may not reveal anything about the effects of drug
policies. It's easy to assume that when you change the law, you change
behavior with respect to drugs. But the process may go in the opposite
direction. Spaniards may not tend to use more cocaine because they
have a permissive law; they may have a permissive law because
Spaniards tend to use more cocaine.

States and nations don't seem to lose anything when they stop treating
drug use as a crime. But there are gains to be had: more police time
to combat violent criminals, less need to build prisons and fewer
young lives scarred by arrest and imprisonment for behavior that does
no harm.

Some people are happy with Mexico exactly as it is. But it just might
benefit from becoming more like Nebraska.

Steve Chapman is a columnist for the Chicago Tribune. His column
appears Mondays and Wednesdays in The Sun.