'HUG-A-THUG' CROWD SHOULD READ STATS

With the federal Conservatives trying to take some baby steps to
toughen Canada's soft-as-butter criminal justice system, the
"hug-a-thug" crowd has been in full rant of late.

After all, as we're lectured, ad nauseam, tougher laws would be mere
pandering to the public because "the crime rate is going down."

Today, let's examine this claim about the crime rate.

The violent crime rate in Canada today (meaning 2008, the latest
available figures) is 321% above what it was in 1962, when comparable
figures first started being recorded by Statistics Canada.

Yes, you read that right.

In 1962, there were 221 violent crimes reported to police per 100,000
population. Today the comparable figure is 932 per 100,000, more than
a tripling in under 50 years.

For property crime, the rate is 62% higher (3,079 crimes per 100,000
population in 2008, compared to 1,891 in 1962).

The overall crime rate is 137% higher (6,589 crimes per 100,000
population last year compared to 2,771 in 1962).

The reason you keep hearing crime is "down" (along with a newer
measurement called "crime severity") is that in the early 1990s, crime
rates started dropping all over North America for reasons no one is
sure of, although everything from an aging population to more liberal
abortion laws (hence, fewer "unwanted" children) have been offered as
theories.

However, what we know unequivocally, especially for violent crime, is
that these rates have never returned to the much lower ones of the
early 1960s.

Back before then Liberal solicitor-general Jean-Pierre Goyer,
complaining about the high cost of keeping criminals in prison,
advised Parliament in 1971 that: "The present situation results from
the fact that (the) protection of society has received more emphasis
than the rehabilitation of inmates. Consequently, we have decided from
now on to stress the rehabilitation of offenders, rather than the
protection of society."

Yes, you read that right. This became the prevailing philosophy of
subsequent Liberal and Progressive Conservative governments for
decades, to the chagrin of crime victims.

Crime rate

Next, since the official crime rate is based on incidents reported to
police, does the reported crime reflect the actual crime rate?

The answer is no. The real crime rate is much higher.

Every five years, Statistics Canada conducts the General Social
Survey. It asks a representative sample of Canadians, among other
things, whether they have been crime victims.

From the last survey in 2004 (the next one is being conducted now,
with the findings to be released next year) Statistics Canada reached
the following conclusions.

First, progressively fewer Canadians who are crime victims are
reporting the crime to police -- only 34% in 2004, compared to 37% in
1999.

Second, based on the GSS, an estimated 92% of sexual assaults were
never reported to police, 46% of break-ins, 51% of motor vehicle/parts
thefts, 61% of physical assaults and 54% of robberies.

Yes, you read that right.

The reported crime rate also excludes federal drug offences -- odd,
given the huge role drugs play in violent crime -- and Criminal Code
traffic offences.

Historically, when a crime involved multiple offences, only the most
serious was recorded in the crime rate and, if, say, a street gang
assaults you on your way home, that counts as one crime, although
there were multiple assailants.

Small wonder the crime rate is going "down," eh?