EXPERTS WARN MEXICO MUST KEEP DRUG TRAFFICKERS FROM GROWING COCA

EL PASO -- The Mexican government must do everything it can to prevent
drug traffickers from growing the coca plant in Mexico, which could be
the next major step the cartels may take, an expert from Colombia said
Friday.

If the cartels are successful in growing the plant, the situation in
Mexico could get worse, said Edgar Mauricio Solano Calderon, a
researcher who helps train the national police in his country.

"The coca plant used in producing cocaine was not native to Colombia.
It was brought over from Bolivia, and in 20 years, Colombia became the
world's biggest producer," Solano said.

Mexican drug traffickers who have displaced Colombian drug dealers
from 80 percent of the U.S. drug markets may be tempted to start
growing coca in Central America and Mexico, where the climate and
other conditions may be right.

Now, most of the cocaine that enters the United States through the
Juarez-El Paso border comes from Colombia.

Solano said the first major Colombian drug cartels began trafficking
marijuana, and later turned to cocaine after successfully cultivating
the coca plant.

He was one of two experts from the Pontifica Universidad Javeriana in
Bogota, Colombia, who spoke Friday at the University of Texas at El
Paso. His colleague, Jose Manuel Salamanca, whose studies involve
sophisticated computer modeling, also talked about the status of
violence and drug trafficking in their country.

UTEP's Center for Inter-American and Border Studies and the Liberal
Arts Advertisement Department sponsored the Colombians' visit to learn
from their country's experiences.

El Paso community leaders have voiced concerns in recent months over
the ongoing violence in Juarez, where two drug organizations are
waging a bloody battle for control -- a battle that's claimed more
than 1,900 lives since January.

UTEP Professor Moira Murphy cautioned against making too many
comparisons between Colombia and Mexico, but what So lano and
Salamanca described is uncannily similar to what is going on across
the border.

Similarities include a marked rise in violence after the government's
announced crackdown against drug cartels, the use of the military for
the fight, the emergence of criminal bands and paramilitaries as
players, and people leaving their home cities to flee the violence.

Other similarities are the increased number of deaths of people who
are not involved in organized crime, and authorities finding it more
difficult to find out who killed someone and why.

"Eighty percent of victims of (all) armed conflicts are civilians,"
Salamanca said. "Civilians are always the target of organized violence."

In the early stages of the growth of the Colombian cartels,
authorities did not pay much attention, and that allowed the problem
to grow into what it is now. Some experts say the same thing happened
in Mexico.

Salamanca said unattended poverty was the main reason drug trafficking
began and was able to flourish in Colombia.

Between 2002 and 2004, Colombian authorities reported the deaths of
nine drug dealers, 4,594 guerrillas and 993 paramilitaries.

"They also reported the capture of 128,108 drug dealers, but we have
no idea where they are," Salamanca said.

Although a kilo of cocaine is about two-thirds cheaper today on the
streets of New York than it was in 1990, the drug is still widely
available. One of the experts said a kilo of cocaine in Colombia still
costs about $1,000, which is considered profitable.

After the Colombian government dismantled the two big cartels, which
were based in Medellin and Cali, the cartels splintered into about 200
"baby cartels," the experts said.

Salamanca said Plan Co lombia, the U.S. government's anti-drug aid
package, was extended for five years. "The plan assumes there will be
no more coca in Colombia in five years, but it's doubtful," he said.

About 80 percent of Plan Colombia funds are destined for the military
and for eradication, and seven new military bases are under
construction in Colombia. The U.S. Merida Initiative for Mexico also
earmarked most of the aid for military and law enforcement training
and equipment.

Solano, who advised against legalizing drugs, recommended major
education campaigns aimed at prevention, improved drug interdiction
efforts, and working to reduce corruption in the society.