CRIME MAKES A COMEBACK IN CALIFORNIA POLITICS

Early Parole and Prisoner Releases Could Put an Old Issue Back on the Agenda.

There are so many politicians running for office in California with
Silicon Valley roots that a Sacramento Bee reporter says next year
could be the valley's political "coming out party." Former
Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is running for U.S. Senate. Former
eBay CEO Meg Whitman is running for governor, as are former high-tech
entrepreneur and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and Tom
Campbell, a former congressman from the valley.

But amid the hubbub about the "new economy" coming to dominate Golden
State politics, an old-fashioned issue is creeping back to the
surface that none of these Republicans can afford to ignore: crime.

Consider what happened in 1994. Republican Gov. Pete Wilson, vying
for re-election, was down 23 points in March. Then Melvin Carter, who
had been convicted of a dozen rapes in 1982 and sentenced to 25 years
in prison, was suddenly released thanks to time-off for good
behavior. Democratic challenger Kathleen Brown said Carter's release
was evidence Mr. Wilson was soft on crime.

The Republican counterpunch was devastating: The "good-time credits"
law that let Carter out had been signed by Ms. Brown's brother, Jerry
Brown, when he was governor. And it was her father, Pat Brown, who as
governor appointed the judge who refused to correct a sentencing
error that would have doubled Carter's punishment. Ms. Brown never
recovered. She lost by 15 points.

Nearly 16 years later, the characters have changed, yet three
constants remain regarding the politics of crime.

First, horrific crimes continually strike home in middle-class
neighborhoods. Right now in Southern California the ongoing Station
Fire has consumed more than 100,000 acres, killed at least two
people-and appears to be the work of arson. The investigation could
turn into a death-penalty case. In Northern California, there is the
recent arrest of Phillip Craig Garrido for allegedly abducting,
raping and imprisoning Jaycee Dugard for some 18 years.

The second constant: For all their progressive quirks, California
voters reliably tilt to the right on crime, last year's election
being no exception. Barack Obama easily carried California, with 61%
of the vote. Yet 60% of Californians rejected Proposition 5, a George
Soros-financed initiative that would have shortened sentences for
drug felons. In November 2006, 70% of Californians voted for
Proposition 83, the state's "Jessica's Law" establishing stiffer
sentences and GPS tracking of registered sex offenders.

The third constant: In a "wrong track" election year, a sour
electorate has little stomach for candidates who don't share their
values. That was the lesson of the Wilson-Brown contest in 1994, when
opinion swung nearly 40% against the liberal Democrat seen as "soft"
on crime and illegal immigration.

Could history repeat itself in 2010? One opening comes courtesy of
the state's fiscal mess. As part of this summer's budget deal, the
legislature must cut $1.2 billion from the corrections budget to help
close California's $26.3 billion deficit. Democratic lawmakers have
suggested releasing up to 37,000 inmates to help ease prison-operation costs.

Republican State Sen. Tom Harman, a candidate for state Attorney
General in 2010, is offering a conservative alternative: Rein in the
runaway cost of prisoner health care. Over the past eight years, the
cost of inmate care has more than quadrupled to $2.9 billion
annually, or about $14,000 per prisoner. It's so expensive because
the system is rife with waste and offers generous benefits (including
heart transplants at top hospitals).

It's an interesting message for Republicans to road test, especially
in Latino communities. Then again, the fear of alienating Latinos may
discourage more moderate GOP candidates from bringing up the issue of
the approximately 30,000 illegal aliens currently residing in
California prisons. Some California Republicans now avoid the issue,
lest they be branded as anti-immigrant. But other party stalwarts
point out that incarcerated illegal aliens cost California taxpayers
nearly $1 billion annually, with the Golden State paying 90 cents for
every dime that comes from Washington. Will Ms. Fiorina have the
courage to make federal reimbursement an issue against Sen. Barbara
Boxer, who has done little on the matter during her three terms in the Senate?

Another flash point is the possibility of an appointed commission to
rewrite California's sentencing guidelines. The idea was included
earlier this year in the assembly bill to cut prison spending, but it
was dropped due to queasiness within the Democratic caucus.

But if last fall's vote against Proposition 5 is any indication, that
shouldn't stop Republicans from reminding voters that Mr. Garrido is
the by-product of a reduced sentence. He had served time in federal
prison for drug offenses and in Nevada for sexual assault, and he was
out on parole when he was arrested.

California Republicans may also get lucky. Four years after Kathleen
Brown's self-inflicted wound, Democrat Gray Davis cruised to victory
in 1998 by showcasing his support of the death penalty. Mr. Davis
went so far as to promise Californians that he would be "death on
violent crime."

The current Democratic contenders aren't as dexterous. Jerry Brown
touts a tough-on-crime record-as California's attorney general, and
prior to that as mayor of Oakland. But it doesn't square with his
record as a governor in the 1970s, most notably his opposition to the
state's death penalty.

The other Democrat hopeful, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, may be
haunted by Danielle Bologna. She's a San Francisco widow whose
husband and two sons were murdered last year by an illegal immigrant.
That immigrant might have been deported after his conviction for two
gang-related felonies before the murders. But under San Francisco's
1989 "safe harbor" law, officials were barred from alerting federal
authorities of his immigration status.

Not all California Republicans will be comfortable with elevating
crime as a campaign issue, especially after seven years of Mr.
Schwarzenegger avoiding conservative wedge issues in favor of
left-of-center ideas. And so far all four candidates are avoiding the
issue. But it will likely take more than biography to win a
high-profile state-wide election-and 2010 is likely to be a contest
of ideas as well as values.