POT INITIATIVE ENTERS CIRCULATION

Months ago, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said it's "time for a debate"
on the legalization of marijuana in California. Now, some want to
skip the debate and get to the legalization.

Wednesday, the first of three initiatives seeking to effectively
legalize marijuana possession, cultivation and sales entered
circulation. While there seems to be a rising tide of support for
such a state policy change, it remains wholly unclear if any of the
three initiatives would garner support from a majority of the
state's voters. And, if one does, the potential impacts on Humboldt
County are murky.

"Complete legalization would not be good for the Humboldt County
economy," said local attorney and longtime medical marijuana advocate
Greg Allen. "But, there's no question that for the state's economy,
legalization would be a good thing."

After years in the background as the state was awash in controversy
over medical marijuana laws, the debate over out-and-out legalization
in California was thrust forward amid the state's epic budget crisis
earlier this year. With the state then facing a projected $42
billion deficit, state Assemblyman Tom Ammiano, D-San Francisco,
introduced a bill in February seeking to legalize, regulate and tax
marijuana. It was the prospect of new tax revenue -- to the tune of
an estimated $1.3 billion, according to the state Board of
Equalization -- that seemed to give the idea a foothold.

Ammiano and his staff trumpeted both the new revenue stream and a
bundle of enforcement savings as reasons for the cash-strapped state
to give the bill serious consideration. The governor said it was time
for a debate, and a sprinkle of lawmakers throughout the state
agreed, including North Coast Sen. Patricia Wiggins.

"We've heard estimates about how much money this could raise, and
while it's hard to know how close to the mark those estimates are, my
staff have heard from police and sheriff officials from throughout my
district who say decriminalization would also allow them to devote
more of their time and resources to more pressing law enforcement
matters," Wiggins said at the time.

For the first time, it also seemed public sentiment was on the side
of legalization, although many say they fear legalization would lead
to more minors accessing the drug and more abuse in general.

In April, a California Field Poll estimated that 56 percent of
registered voters supported the idea of legalizing marijuana for
recreational use and taxing its proceeds.

In the Capitol, however, the topic soon lost steam. Under the weight
of another budget crisis, Ammiano had essentially shelved the bill,
saying it needed more study and retooling.

Now, as they've been known to do, Californians are taking matters
into their own hands and turning to the initiative system. But, not
everyone in the marijuana advocacy community is entirely optimistic.

Allen St. Pierre, executive director of the National Organization for
the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), said pro-marijuana initiatives
generally lose support from the point when they are initially
announced, as opposition groups begin advertising and speaking out
against them.

"They all lose support," he said, adding that NORML expects them to
lose between 5 and 8 percent of supporters at the polls.

NORML is so convinced in the drop-off effect, St. Pierre said, that
it will only launch an initiative effort if its polling shows 58.5
percent of likely voters in favor of a proposition.

"Can 56 percent hold? Here at NORML we wouldn't launch. That just
wouldn't be high enough for us," St. Pierre said.

The proverbial cat, however, is out of the bag, and St. Pierre said
NORML will consider endorsing one of the soon-to-be-competing
initiatives, likely basing its decision on which is most likely to
pass.

The initiative that entered circulation Wednesday -- the other two
are currently under review at the Attorney General's Office -- would
repeal all state laws that currently make it a crime for people over
the age of 21 to use, possess, sell, cultivate and transport
marijuana, except those that make it a crime to drive under the influence.

If it gets the 430,000 signatures to make it to the ballot, and then
gets more than 50 percent of the vote, the law would also expunge
convictions based on the repealed laws. That might represent a
challenge in getting it passed, St. Pierre said.

When people start talking about expunging records, overturning
convictions and even offering reparations to those who have served
prison time on marijuana offenses, St. Pierre said they tend to lose
middle-of-the-road, pragmatic voters.

"Things like reparations or expungement typically retard or kill the
initiatives," he said. "They make the process much more difficult."

But expungement might have its positives, Allen said, and would
certainly translate to a savings of state revenue if everyone with
marijuana convictions were released from prison and taken off parole.

"Getting these people out of the system, and I mean completely out,
would save us a lot of money," Allen said.

According to the California Department of Corrections and
Rehabilitation, 809 people were in California prisons for
marijuana-related offenses as of the end of 2007 -- the last day for
which statistics were available. At an annual cost of $49,000 per
inmate to the state, that equates to an estimated $39 million that
taxpayers spent in 2007 to keep marijuana offenders behind bars. And
that doesn't include funds spent to keep offenders in county jails,
where the vast majority of those convicted of marijuana offenses end
up serving their sentences.

Whether legalization would be a benefit or a hindrance to Humboldt
County remains up for debate, Allen said.

There's the possibility, he said, that the county could carve out a
high-end, boutique-type niche for itself, eventually becoming what
Napa Valley is to wine and drawing tourists from across the state,
and the country, to come sample the Humboldt brand of marijuana.

However, Allen said there's also the distinct possibility that
massive farming operations in the Central Valley would flood the
market, driving the price of marijuana down so far Humboldt County's
smaller scale growers would be unable to compete.

Allen said the federal government's reaction to legalization in
California could also prove to be the "joker in the deck" in how
legalization affects the marijuana market.

In any event, it's very hard to tell what the impacts to Humboldt
County would be, Allen said, both because it's difficult to determine
how legalization would change the marijuana market and because it's
just about impossible to tell how big a part marijuana currently
plays in the local economy.

"It's interesting, and it's hard to actually really project where
it's going to go," Allen said. "I think, in the long run, complete
legalization would be really problematic for Humboldt County. We
don't know how much of Humboldt's economy comes from marijuana sales,
but we know it's a lot."