WHAT REALLY HAPPENED TO THE HEROIN DROUGHT

About Christmas 2000 Australia experienced an unprecedented reduction
in the supply of heroin. The price of heroin rose from $218 a gram to
$381. The purity of heroin fell from 60 per cent to 20 per cent.

To that point many people thought that if heroin became more
expensive, dealers' profits would increase and heroin users would
commit even more crime to fund their purchases of heroin. What
happened was that heroin use and crimes such as theft and robbery fell
like a stone.

The national robbery rate fell 30 per cent; the national burglary rate
fell 50 per cent; and the national motor vehicle theft rate fell 56
per cent. The NSW robbery rate is now back to where it was in the
early 1990s. The burglary and motor vehicle theft rates in NSW are
lower than they were in 1990. What are we to make, then, of recent
claims that the heroin "drought" has ended?

It is important to know that heroin never disappeared from our
streets. What happened was that the drug became a lot more expensive
to buy and a lot less pure. Heroin users reacted like anyone having to
pay more for a greatly inferior product. Most stopped using it; some
used it much less frequently; some switched to other products (both
legal and illegal).

Suggestions that the heroin shortage has ended are usually based on
one or other of three claims: global production of heroin use has
increased; border detections of heroin use have increased; and/or
heroin overdoses or arrests for heroin possession and use have increased.

Let us look at each of these in turn.

The production of heroin in South-West Asia has increased over the
past decade. There are also signs that heroin production is shifting
to that region. However, the primary source of most Australian heroin
remains South-East Asia. Production of heroin there over the past 10
years has fallen.

The second point worth noting is that the Australian heroin market is
tiny compared with the markets in Asia, Europe and the US. An increase
in global heroin production does not automatically mean we will see an
increase in heroin use here.

What about the claimed increase in border detections of heroin? There
has been an increase in border detections of heroin over the past
three years, but the quantities of heroin seized at the customs
barrier fluctuate markedly.

The quantity seized in 2007-08 was higher than the amount seized in
the two preceding years. Even so, it was only about half the weight of
heroin seized in 2004-05, two years after the heroin shortage began.
That quantity, in turn, was less than half the weight of heroin seized
in 2001-02. Figures that bounce around like this should be treated
with caution.

The strongest evidence that the heroin shortage has ended is that,
over the past few months, heroin use in parts of Sydney does seem to
have increased.

Police figures in the City of Sydney council area show an increase in
arrests for heroin possession and use. Doctors at St Vincent's
Hospital near Kings Cross are reporting an increase in heroin
overdoses. Should we conclude, then, that the heroin shortage has ended?

Well no, not really. This is not the first time since the heroin
shortage that we have seen a jump in heroin overdoses and arrests. We
had one in 2003-04. The following year heroin use fell as quickly as
it rose.

The increase in heroin use at the moment appears to be confined to
parts of the central city. There is no sign of an increase in heroin
use in other former heroin "hotspots" such as Cabramatta.

More importantly, the level of heroin use at the moment is nowhere
near what it was in 1999. At the height of the heroin epidemic arrests
for heroin use and possession in NSW were running at about 350 a
month. They are now running at about 50 a month.

In the year before the heroin shortage 481 people in NSW died of a
heroin overdose; last year in NSW 65 people died that way. In
Cabramatta, which was once awash with heroin, police now make about 10
arrests for heroin use and possession each month. That compares with
140 arrests a month in December 1998.

Meanwhile, although amphetamine abuse appears to be stable at the
moment, it has risen greatly over the past decade. Arrests for using
or possessing amphetamines were running at about 50 a month back in
1996. They are now running at about 200 a month.

The other big problem is a growth in the abuse of pharmaceutical
opioids, such as oxycodone. No one knows the true scale of this
problem, but the number of people injecting them in Kings Cross has
risen greatly over the past three years. It may be a big problem in
other areas as well.

Instead of worrying about the heroin shortage ending we should be
worrying about the drug problems that have become worse.