IGNATIEFF'S SHIFT RIGHT ANGERS GRITS

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff is shifting his party to the right.
He's killed the centre-left coalition. He's defended the tar sands.
Now, he's supporting the Conservatives' law and order
legislation.

He's taking a big risk.

When Liberals "tack right" ideologically, or have a leader whose image
is right-of-centre, like John Turner and Paul Martin, they lose elections.

A solid 30 to 35 per cent of Canadians always vote for the party of
the right, now the Conservatives. The main political game is the 65 to
70 per cent of Canadians on the centre and left. When the Liberals
pursue the conservative vote, not only do they fail to make inroads,
they lose a big chunk of their base, and their potential base, to the
three left-wing parties.

It was the Liberals' legendary "Rainmaker," Keith Davey, who
formulated their famous "tack left" strategy, turning it into one
winning campaign after another throughout the Pearson and Trudeau
eras. Jean Chretien's left-wing populism helped him cruise to three
consecutive majorities. Turner and Martin couldn't tap into that.
Their image was too "business Liberal." Poor English doomed leftish
Stephane Dion.

Ignatieff occasionally talks the progressive talk, but he has yet to
walk it. He's also repeating Dion's biggest mistake, crying wolf. He
keeps threatening to bring down the government and then backs away, to
rising ridicule.

Rank and file Liberals are getting restive and angry. A published
report Monday hinted at a grassroots Liberal revolt over the caucus
decision to support the Conservatives' legislation imposing mandatory
minimum sentences for drug crimes. Bill C-15 sets a mandatory
six-month jail term for anyone growing just one marijuana plant for
sale purposes. The Liberals are also expected to support abolishing
the faint hope clause. It means individuals convicted of murder will
serve their entire 25-year sentence and then be released, no strings
attached, onto the general population.

Toronto lawyer James Morton, deputy chair of the Liberals' council of
riding presidents, blogged that voting for C-15 is "a terrible idea."
Former Niagara Falls riding president Jim Curran called it "one of the
dumbest things I've seen the Liberal Party of Canada support in decades."

Added another anonymous Liberal: "I think the party will lose support
over this."

Blogged another: "True courage is standing up against a failed policy
that is detrimental to Canadians even though you know you will be
painted as 'soft on crime.'"

Many Canadians will be surprised to learn that the Rainmaker's son,
Ian Davey, is Ignatieff's principal secretary.

Paul Adams, director of strategic communications for Ottawa pollster
Ekos Research, thinks he knows why even Ian Davey is prepared to
abandon his father's political maxim.

The Liberals are convinced they lost the last election because they
lost the "business Liberals" to the Conservatives, Adams says. And, in
the new, post-Davey rulebook, losing a Liberal to a Conservative vote
is akin to losing two votes: one because you've lost; the other,
because you've given it to your chief opponent.

The Liberals believe they can't become truly competitive unless they
first recapture business Liberals. "Then they feel they can present a
strategic alternative to (the Conservatives) that will galvanize
support on the so-called left," Adams continues. "But at the end (of
the last election) the Liberals lost in every conceivable direction,
Conservatives, Greens, NDP and the sidelines."

Ekos' April poll gave the Liberals a 6.5 per cent lead over the
Conservatives -- 36.7 per cent to 30.2 per cent. But its June sample
of 11,000 Canadians for the CBC showed the two parties tied: 33.5 per
cent Liberal and 32.3 per cent Conservative.

Adams attributes the shift to upper income retired business Liberals.
"They are more driven by the Toronto Stock Exchange than unemployment
numbers." The TSX was booming during most of the polling period.

News of the $50-billion deficit hit just at the poll's close. Ekos'
daily tracking since shows "those people suddenly stampeded back to
the Liberals, so they are a very volatile group," Adams said. "If the
Liberals think they're going to get to their 37 or 38 (per cent) with
those folks, well, good luck to them."

The Rainmaker would agree. It's not just a tall order. It's
practically impossible.