MARIJUANA AT THE TIPPING POINT

Is a Tidal Wave of Reason About to Change Our Pot Laws?

Sometime in the last few months, the notion of legalizing marijuana
crossed an invisible threshold. Long relegated to the margins of
political discourse by the conventional wisdom, pot freedom has this
year gone mainstream.

The potential flu pandemic and President Obama's 100th day in office
may have knocked marijuana off the front pages this week, but so far
this year, the issue has exploded in the mass media, impelled by the
twin forces of economic crisis and Mexican violence fueled by drug
prohibition. A Google news search for the phrase "legalize marijuana"
turned up more than 1,100 hits -- and that's just for the month of April.

It has been helped along by everything from the Michael Phelps
non-scandal to the domination of marijuana legalization questions in
the Change.gov questions, which prompted President Obama to laugh off
the very notion, to the economy, to the debate over the drug war in
Mexico. But it has also been ineffably helped along by the lifting of
the oppressive burden of Bush administration drug war dogma. There is
a new freedom in the air when it comes to marijuana.

Newspaper columnists and editorial page writers from across the land
have taken up the cause with gusto, as have letter writers and
bloggers. Last week, even a US senator got into the act, when Sen.
Jim Webb (D-VA) told CNN that marijuana legalization is "on the table."

But despite the seeming explosion of interest in marijuana
legalization, the actual fact of legalization seems as distant as
ever, a distant vision obscured behind a wall of bureaucracy, vested
interests, and craven politicians. Drug War Chronicle spoke with some
movement movers and shakers to find out just what's going on... and what's not.

"There is clearly more interest and serious discussion of whether
marijuana prohibition makes any sense than I've seen at any point in
my adult lifetime," said Bruce Mirken, communications director for
the Marijuana Policy Project. "It's not just the usual suspects; it's
people like Jack Cafferty on CNN and Senator Jim Webb, as well as
editorial pages and columnists across the country."

Mirken cited a number of factors for the sudden rise to prominence of
the marijuana issue. "I think it's a combination of things: Michael
Phelps, the horrible situation on the Mexican border, the state of
the economy and the realization that there is a very large industry
out there that provides marijuana to millions of consumers completely
outside the legal economy that is untaxed and unregulated," he said.
"All of these factors have come together in a way that makes it much
easier for people to connect the dots."

"Things started going white hot in the second week of January," said
Allen St. Pierre, executive director of the National Organization for
the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML). "We had the fallout from the
Michael Phelps incident, the Change.gov marijuana question to Obama
and his chuckling response, we have the Mexico violence, we have the
economic issues," he counted. "All of these things have helped
galvanize a certain zeitgeist that is palpable and that almost
everyone can appreciate."

"The politicians are still very slow on picking up on the desires of
citizens no matter how high the polling numbers go, especially on
decriminalization and medical marijuana," said St. Pierre. "The
polling numbers are over 70% for those, and support for legalization
nationwide is now at about 42%, depending on which data set you use.
Everything seems to be breaking for reform in these past few weeks,
and I expect those numbers to only go up."

"It feels like we're reaching the tipping point," said Amber
Langston, eastern region outreach director for Students for Sensible
Drug Policy. "I've been feeling that for a couple of months now. The
Michael Phelps incident sent a clear message that you can be
successful and still have used marijuana. He's still a hero to lots
of people," she said.

"I think we're getting close now," said Langston. "We have moved the
conversation to the next level, where people are actually taking this
seriously and we're not just having another fear-based discussion."

"There is definitely momentum building around marijuana issues," said
Denver-based Mason Tvert, executive director of SAFER (Safer
Alternatives for Enjoyable Recreation), which has built a successful
strategy around comparing alcohol and marijuana. "Yet we still find
ourselves in a situation where change is not happening. Up until now,
people have made arguments around criminal justice savings, other
economic benefits, ending the black market -- those things have got
us to where we are today, but they haven't been enough to get elected
officials to act," he argued.

"The problem is that there are still far too many people who see
marijuana as so harmful it shouldn't be legalized," Tvert continued.
"That suggests we need to be doing more to address the relative
safety of marijuana, especially compared to drugs like alcohol. The
good arguments above will then carry more weight. Just as a concerned
parent doesn't want to reap the tax benefits of legal heroin, it's
the same with marijuana. The mantra is why provide another vice. What
we're saying is that we're providing an alternative for the millions
who would prefer to use marijuana instead of alcohol."

With the accumulation of arguments for legalization growing ever
weightier, the edifice of marijuana prohibition seems increasingly
shaky. "Marijuana prohibition has become like the Soviet Empire circa
1987 or 1988," Mirken analogized. "It's an empty shell of a policy
that continues only because it is perceived as being huge and
formidable, but when the perception changes, the whole thing is going
to collapse."

Still, translating the zeitgeist into real change remains a
formidable task, said Mirken. "It is going to take hard work. All of
us need to keep finding ways to keep these discussions going in the
media, we need to work with open-minded legislators to get bills
introduced where there can be hearings to air the facts and where we
can refute the nonsense that comes from our opponents. Keeping the
debate front and center is essential," he said.

Mirken is waiting for the other shoe to drop. "We have to prepared
for an empire strikes back moment," he said. "I predict that within
the next year, there will be a concerted effort to scare the
daylights out of people about marijuana."

Activists need to keep hammering away at both the federal government
and state and local governments, Mirken said. "We are talking to
members of Congress and seeing what might be doable. Even if nothing
passes immediately, introducing a bill can move the discussion
forward, but realistically, things are more likely to happen at the
state and local level," he said, citing the legalization bill in
California and hinting that MPP would try legalization in Nevada again.

Part of the problem of the mismatch between popular fervor and actual
progress on reform is partisan positioning, said St. Pierre. "Even
politicians who may be personally supportive and can appreciate what
they see going on around them as this goes mainstream do not want to
hand conservative Republicans a triangulation issue. The Democrats
are begging for a certain degree of political maturity from the
reform movement," he said. "They're dealing with two wars, tough
economic times, trying to do health care reform. They don't want to
raise cannabis to a level where it becomes contentious for Obama."

The window of opportunity for presidential action is four years down
the road, St. Pierre suggested. "If Obama doesn't do anything next
year, they will then be in reelection mode and unlikely to act," he
mused. "I think our real shot comes after he is reelected. Then we
have two years before he becomes a lame duck."

But we don't have to wait for Obama, said St. Pierre. "We expect
Barney Frank and Ron Paul to reintroduce decriminalization and
medical marijuana bills," he said. "I don't think they will pass this
year, but we might get hearings, although I don't think that's likely
until the fall."

It's not just that politicians need to understand that supporting
marijuana legalization will not hurt them -- they need to understand
that standing its way will. "The politicians aren't feeling the pain
of being opposed to remain," St. Pierre said. "We have to take out
one of those last remaining drug war zealots."